Oil Above $100 on Uncertainty Over Next Phase of Iran War


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- Crude oil futures settled above $100 bbl Monday (3/20) 
as U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of troop reinforcement and destruction 
of energy plants in Iran offset efforts by Pakistani mediators to de-escalate 
the Middle East conflict.

   The U.S. military has reportedly mobilized tens of thousands of troops in 
the region, signaling a possible ground offensive by Washington which wants 
Tehran to reopen the Iran-bordering Strait of Hormuz that used to serve a fifth 
of the world's petroleum trade.

   Transit through the waterway remained severely restricted Monday as the 
month-long conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran expanded to include 
weekend strikes by Houthi forces. These attacks raise concerns that the 
Yemen-based militia could target the millions of bpd in Saudi crude recently 
diverted to Red Sea terminals.

   "Markets will be watching tanker movements closely in the coming days for 
signs of de-escalation versus prolonged chokepoint issues," Phil Flynn, energy 
analyst at Chicago's Price Futures Group, said, underscoring the uncertainty 
over the next phase of the war.

   President Trump has singled out Kharg Island, which serves as the primary 
export hub for Iranian crude, for potential destruction while eyeing other 
energy infrastructure targets crucial for the sustenance of the regime in Iran.

   Pakistani mediators, meanwhile, are trying to lay the ground for a ceasefire 
by helping the exchange of messages between the warring sides. Market 
participants are skeptical of a diplomatic breakthrough as missile fire 
continues to be traded across the Middle East even as Islamabad offered to host 
talks.

   With a just day before the end of March trading, U.S. West Texas 
Intermediate and U.K. North Brent Sea both showed a monthly rise of 44% and 
quarterly advance of nearly 80% due to mostly higher crude prices since start 
of the Iran war on February 27.

   In Monday's session, NYMEX WTI for May delivery finished the session at 
$102.88 bbl, up $3.24, or 3.3%, after reaching a peak of $ 102.88. May Brent 
settled at $112.78 bbl, up 21 cents, 0.2% after an intraday high at $112.78 bbl.

   In refined products, April ULSD futures fell $0.1312 gallon to settle at 
$4.3643, while front-month RBOB rose $0.1014 to close at $3.3515 gallon.

   The U.S. dollar index, tracking a basket of foreign currencies, strengthened 
by 0.348 points to 100.33.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.