Analysis: EIA: Gasoline Stock Rebuilding Not Slowing Down


   
Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

   VIENNA (DTN) -- Domestic gasoline inventories continued to expand in line 
with seasonal norms, staying near the post-COVID record highs reached in early 
2024, U.S. Energy Information Administration data revealed Wednesday (1/7).

   The EIA reported total motor gasoline inventories expanding by 7.7 million 
bbl in the week ending January 2. At 242 million bbl, they were 1.8% higher 
than in the same reference week last year and 1.5% above the running three-year 
average.

   Despite Americans driving more than ever -- total vehicle miles traveled 
surpassed the pre-COVID peak for the first time in 2025 -- this improvement 
wasn't enough to offset the effects of EVs and engine efficiency cutting into 
petroleum gasoline demand. Finished motor gasoline supplied, a proxy measure 
for fuel consumption, is lagging year-ago levels by 311,000 bpd, or 3.7%, on 
the daily cumulative average.

   At the same time, domestic gasoline production has been keeping pace with 
year-ago levels, a side effect of refiners maximizing operations in the fourth 
quarter to profit from high margins for middle distillates. Over the past four 
weeks, refiner and blender net production of finished motor gasoline has 
averaged 9.476 million bpd, up 0.7% year-on-year.

   This, in turn, also led to near-record high gasoline exports from the United 
States. In the fourth quarter of 2025, they consistently outpaced year-ago 
levels by some 100,000 bpd. Over the past four weeks, however, they have fallen 
back in line with the pace observed a year earlier. Given sluggish domestic 
demand, cooling exports are likely to keep the growth rate of gasoline 
inventories elevated in the weeks to come.




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