Analysis: EIA Cites 1st 2026 Gasoline Draw as Demand Perks


   
Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

   VIENNA (DTN) -- U.S. gasoline inventories dropped last week for the first 
time in 14 weeks as driving activity appeared to pick up with a moderation in 
icy temperatures experienced since January, Energy Information Administration 
(EIA) data published Thursday (2/19) showed.

   Above-average temperatures across the U.S. Northeast and Midwest have 
replaced the sub-freezing conditions that came in the wake of last month's 
Winter Storm Fern, weather readings showed. Warmer conditions typically lead to 
more driving and fuel usage.

   The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ended February 13 
showed that high refining activity and flat demand led to a longer and steeper 
stock building season than usual. Now that driving demand is picking up and 
some refiners are undergoing maintenance, gasoline inventories have likely 
peaked.

   At 255.8 million bbl, nationwide gasoline inventories at the end of last 
week were still 3.2% above year-ago levels and 3.3% higher than the seasonal 
five-year average. Throughout January, gasoline stocks grew much faster than in 
years past, a byproduct of refiners maximizing operations and delaying 
maintenance to take advantage from unusually high refining margins, 
particularly for middle distillates. Despite shrinking capacity, crude oil 
inputs clocked in at a five-year high.

   Despite increased driving activity and lower fuel prices, year-on-year 
demand for gasoline rose just marginally, the EIA data showed. On a cumulative 
daily average, finished motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for fuel demand, was 
up a mere 0.3% year-on-year in the week ending February 13.

   While still unusually busy for this time of year, refiners have started to 
cut back operations in late January. Net inputs of crude oil hovered around 16 
million bpd for the last three weeks -- up more than 4% year-on-year, but still 
a good 670,000 bpd below the average pace observed in the first four weeks of 
the year.

   The 450,000-bpd week-on-week jump in gasoline supplied accounted for the 
entirety of last week's 3.2 million bbl draw. Demand is set to rise over the 
next few months, and refining activity may have yet to trough despite an 
unusually brief and light maintenance month.

   More maintenance is scheduled for April, by which time gasoline demand is 
typically 300,000 to 500,000 bpd higher. While gasoline inventories have likely 
peaked, they are set to remain above historical averages for the time being.

    




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