IATA: N.A. 2026 Passenger Profit Seen Up by 3% on Lower Fuel


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN). North American airlines, dominated by U.S. carriers, are 
expected to see net profit per passenger climb by 3% in 2026 as lower jet fuel 
prices provide essential cost relief, according to the International Air 
Transport Association (IATA).

   The forecast, contained in IATA's December 2025 Global Outlook for Air 
Transport, is on the premise that passenger yields are expected to remain 
steady in the coming year despite rising non-fuel costs.

   According to IATA, North American net profit per passenger is projected to 
rise from an estimated $9.50 in 2025 to $9.80 in 2026. It places the region 
second globally in this metric, trailing only the Middle East, which benefits 
from its hub carrier model and strong long-haul traffic.

   North America's increase by 3% in profit per passenger is supported by a 
more favorable fuel environment. IATA projects the global average jet fuel 
price to decline to $88 bbl in 2026 from $90 bbl estimated for this year, a 
decrease of 2.4%.

   The relief from jet fuel is crucial as non-fuel operating costs--driven by 
rising labor expenses, aging fleets, and high maintenance, repair, and overhaul 
costs--are forecast to climb by over 5.8% globally.

   Despite the increase in per-passenger earnings, North American carriers are 
expected to cede the top global profit position to European airlines in 2026. 
The U.S.-led region is expected to record total net profit of $11.3 billion 
next year, an increase from the $10.8 billion estimated for 2025, while 
European airlines are projected to see total net profit of $14 billion versus 
$13.2 billion this year.

   The North American air travel market faces additional constraints that will 
limit growth. Projected Revenue Passenger Kilometre (RPK) is expected to grow 
by 1.5%, the lowest among all IATA regions, driven by stagnating domestic U.S. 
demand.

   Capacity is also expected to grow by 1%, the lowest rate globally, limited 
by persistent operational constraints including pilot shortages and supply 
chain delays that keep older, less fuel-efficient aircraft flying longer.

    




(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.