Oil Rallies Deeper Into $100 Zone Amid Saudi Crisis


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- Crude futures extended their rally Tuesday (9/15) as 
escalating Houthi offensive actions in Saudi Arabia raised the geopolitical 
risk premium across energy markets.
NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery rose $4.49, or 4.43%, to settle at $105.88 
bbl, after soaring to $106.75 during the session.

   ICE Brent for November delivery moved up $3.00, or 2.80%, to settle at 
$108.68 bbl. The session high was $109.45.

   Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery climbed $0.2868, or 5.80%, to 
finish at $5.2483 gallon. It peaked at $5.2842 for the day.

   RBOB for October advanced $0.1507, or 4.58%, to end the session at $3.4678 
gallon. It reached $3.4752 earlier.

   U.S. retail fuel prices matched the momentum in NYMEX fuel futures, with 
diesel at pumps reaching a new national record of $6.285 gallon while gasoline 
hit four-month highs of $4.319.

   On the currency front, the U.S. dollar index gained 0.254 points to 99.360 
against a basket of currencies.

   Energy markets remained upbeat as Iran-aligned Houthi forces kept up their 
hostilities against Saudi energy infrastructure while consolidating their hold 
on critical Red Sea maritime positions. The tactical moves reinforce ongoing 
shipping disruptions through the Bab el-Mandeb strait following last week's 
operational shutdown of Saudi Aramco's East-West pipeline.

   Market analysts estimate the cumulative infrastructure damage could take an 
additional 4% to 5% of global crude supplies offline, establishing a firm price 
floor in $100 bbl territory until Saudi export timelines become clearer.

   Diplomatic avenues remain stalled. Planned discussions between Tehran and 
Persian Gulf nations regarding safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz were 
indefinitely postponed. Meanwhile, Iranian officials rejected U.S. President 
Donald Trump's assertions of active diplomatic talks with Washington, insisting 
no truce will occur until the U.S. abides by the terms of a lapsed June 
ceasefire agreement.

   Energy traders are also monitoring weekly supply metrics from the American 
Petroleum Institute, due at 4:30 p.m. ET Tuesday (9/15), ahead of official 
inventory numbers from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday 
(9/16). For the week ended Sept. 4, the API cited a 300,000 bbl crude drawdown, 
compared to the EIA's reported 400,000 bbl draw. Consensus expectations point 
to a further 1.3 million bbl decline in EIA crude stocks for the week ended 
Sept. 11, anchored by strong export demand and high refinery throughput.

   Broader macroeconomic headwinds, meanwhile, continue to influence energy 
markets as investors position for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy 
decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to enact its first 
interest rate hike in three years to tame stubborn inflation, raising the 
benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points from its current 3.50% to 3.75% 
band up to 3.75% to 4.00%.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.