California Cuts 2035 BEV Forecast as Federal Credits End


   
Daniel Rodriguez Huerta
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   CALGARY, CANADA (DTN) -- The California Energy Commission (CEC) has cut by 
just over 16% its ownership forecast for light-duty battery electric vehicles 
(BEVs) by 2035, citing the end of federal tax credits.

   The CEC's baseline case, which reflects current policies and economic 
conditions, is 6.2 million BEVs in California by 2035 - versus its prior target 
of 7.19 million, draft presentations of the agency docketed on Monday (11/9) 
showed.

   Meanwhile, the CEC's high-end case, a model of what is achievable under new 
policies to meet the state's electrification goals, it will be 13.9 million 
BEVs - still 4.79% fewer than before.

   The docketed presentations are to be discussed on Thursday's public 
consultation workshop for CEC's Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) biennial 
update.

   Federal tax credits that expired in September 2025 have weighed on BEV 
sales. The electrified share of new-vehicle sales in California fell 4.89 
percentage points year over year in 2026 to 18.04%, short of the nearly 
one-quarter share the 2024 IEPR update anticipated.

   Advocates for BEVs say high gasoline and diesel prices, state BEV grants and 
a wider choice of vehicles and chargers will help still support demand, 
according to the presentations.

   The high-end case for sales also assumes strong growth in medium- and 
heavy-duty vehicles, although, as of now, it projects 31.82% fewer electrified 
trucks in 2035 than initially projected.

   The CEC cut its September 2035 light-duty EV demand forecast by 25.89% to 
8,300 MW at 9 a.m. The presentations did not include annual charging 
electricity demand or fuel-demand reduction projections. In its 2024 report, 
the CEC projected 57,000-103,000 GWh of EV charging demand by 2040, equivalent 
to roughly 110,300-198,400 b/d of gasoline using U.S. EPA metrics.




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