Analysis: EIA Confirms Record Crude Production, Exports


   
Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

   VIENNA (DTN) -- U.S. crude oil production and exports set new record highs 
in April, monthly Energy Information Administration data released Tuesday 
(6/30) showed, beating previous weekly estimates.

   The closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the start of March cut the world off 
a fifth of global oil supply, leading to unprecedented demand for U.S. crude 
oil and refined products. Consequently, crude oil exports in April jumped by 
1.55 million bpd, or 38%, to 5.59 million bpd, dwarfing the previous monthly 
record set in December 2023 by 971,000 bpd. Year over year, crude exports were 
up 1.71 million bpd, or 44%.

   EIA's weekly estimates had captured the trend, but likely slightly 
underestimated the size of the increase. Weekly data showed crude exports 
clocking in at 5.3 million bpd in the four weeks ending May 1, a month-on-month 
plus of 1.33 million bpd.

   U.S. crude production also reacted to the price jump caused by the largest 
oil supply disruption in history. Field production soared by 216,000 bpd to a 
record high 13.93 million bpd in April, marking a 468,000 bpd, or 3.5%, 
year-on-year increase.

   As with exports, weekly EIA data failed to fully reflect the rise in 
production. Weekly estimates had pegged average crude oil production in the 
four weeks ending May 1 at 13.59 million bpd.

   The agency has a history of underestimating crude output in their weekly 
figures, and has in the past adapted by adjusting higher production estimates 
in the WPSR. Estimates have, however, considerably improved, leading to an 
ever-shrinking adjustment factor. This factor has over the past months turned 
negative, suggesting that the EIA might currently be underestimating exports 
more than production.

   These trends seemed to continue according to the most recent weekly data 
published today (7/1). Crude exports have over the past four weeks averaged 
4.46 million bpd, 905,000 bpd, or 25.5%, more than in the comparable period 
last year. This unbroken export strength in combination with rising domestic 
demand -- crude oil inputs averaged just shy of 17.2 million bpd in the week 
ended June 26 -- continued to exert a strong pull on commercial crude 
inventories, which fell to 408.4 million bbl, the lowest in nearly eight years.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.