MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News Sept 25:
Updated at 5:30 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- Midwest Weekly: Jet Fuel Drops 17% as Joliet Restarts
--USGC Weekly: ULSD Drops 9% as Stocks Build
--NYH Weekly: ULSD Falls 8% Despite Historically Tight Stocks
--USWC Weekly: SF Diesel Plunges 13%, Gasoline Rises
--Suncor Commerce City Refinery Plans Maintenance
--University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Eases in Sept
----Baker Hughes: N. America Rigs Rise 15 to 807
--Analysis: U.S. Diesel Export Ban Won't Bring Price Relief
--EPA Returns Midwest Storage Tank Sites to Productive Use
--Diesel Racks Break Below $5 as Selloff
NEWS:
Midwest Weekly: Jet Fuel Drops 17% as Joliet Restarts
Chicago jet fuel plummeted nearly 17% on the week to lead Midwest spot fuel
markets sharply lower, as basis levels pulled back following progress on unit
restarts at ExxonMobil's Joliet refinery.
Chicago jet fuel fell 86.57cts, or 16.88%, on the week to average $4.2636
gallon, down from $5.1293 gallon a week ago, DTN data showed. In the
Midcontinent, Group 3 jet fuel slid 8.07cts, or 1.88%, to average $4.2056
gallon.
Distillate cash markets posted broad single- to double-digit percentage
declines across all regional distribution hubs as physical differentials
retreated from peak spikes. Chicago ULSD dropped 53.77cts, or 9.98%, on the
week to average $4.8486 gallon.
Buckeye Complex ULSD fell 49.77cts, or 9.24%, to average $4.8866 gallon,
while Wolverine ULSD retreated 50.77cts, or 9.41%, to average $4.8866 gallon.
In the Plains, Group 3 ULSD slid 32.07cts, or 6.28%, on the week to average
$4.7856 gallon.
PADD 2 cash gasoline markets also posted widespread weekly losses across
regional pipeline networks. Chicago CBOB fell 36.53cts, or 9.97%, on the week
to average $3.3002 gallon.
In eastern pipeline distribution channels, Buckeye Complex CBOB dropped
34.13cts, or 9.28%, to average $3.3362 gallon, while Wolverine CBOB dipped
17.51cts, or 4.70%, to average $3.5502 gallon. In the Midcontinent, Group 3
CBOB fell 11.73cts, or 3.28%, on the week to average $3.4532 gallon.
The physical pullback came as units at ExxonMobil's 275,000 bpd Joliet
refinery in Channahon, Illinois, underwent stabilization and step-by-step
restart procedures following a September 13 site-wide power outage and
secondary pump flooding on September 17. The operational disruptions had
temporarily restricted refined product flows into major Chicago distribution
hubs, triggering extreme basis volatility.
Supply distribution across the region also faced lingering adjustments on
the Explorer Pipeline following an August 17 fire at its Glenpool, Oklahoma
breakout station, which constrained batch scheduling into Wood River and
Chicago hubs.
The recent supply shocks were compounded by lower overall regional refining
activity. Energy Information Administration data showed PADD 2 refiner crude
processing dropped to 3.802 million bpd for the week ended September 18,
pulling utilization down 11.0 percentage points to 89.0% and driving regional
distillate fuel oil inventories down by 1.6 million bbl to a multi-month low of
27.2 million bbl.
Despite the recent pullback in spot values, physical traders note that
regional supply balances remain tight as agricultural harvest demand picks up
across the Midwest, keeping markets vulnerable to localized supply squeezes
ahead of upcoming fall maintenance schedules.
USGC Weekly: ULSD Drops 9% as Stocks Build
U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) refined-product spot prices retreated during the week
ended September 25, reversing part of the previous week's sharp advance as ULSD
dropped more than 9% and jet fuel fell nearly 6%. Gasoline proved more
resilient, with CBOB edging down slightly more than 1%.
ULSD at the Houston origin of the Colonial Pipeline averaged $4.6044 gallon,
falling 46.03cts, or 9.09%, from the previous week. Despite the weekly decline,
prices remained $2.2382, or 94.59%, above the $2.3662 gallon recorded in late
September 2025, DTN data showed.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (9/23)
that PADD 3 distillate inventories increased by about 600,000 bbl to 44.4
million bbl during the week ended September 18 from 43.8 million bbl the
previous week. Stockpiles remained below the 45.2 million bbl held during the
corresponding period in 2025.
Jet fuel averaged $4.4400 gallon, dropping 26.17cts, or 5.57%, from the
previous week. The weekly average stood $2.1908, or 97.40%, above the $2.2492
gallon registered during the same period of the previous year.
Gulf Coast jet fuel inventories edged up by about 100,000 bbl to 14.2
million bbl from 14.1 million bbl the previous week, EIA data showed. Supplies
remained above the 13.4 million bbl recorded in the equivalent 2025 week.
CBOB regular fell 4.16cts, or 1.21%, to average $3.4067 gallon. Prices
remained $1.4579, or 74.81%, above the $1.9488 gallon level from the
corresponding week in 2025.
PADD 3 gasoline inventories were little changed at 77.7 million bbl from
77.6 million bbl the previous week and remained below the 78.3 million bbl held
in the equivalent period of 2025. Gasoline imports increased to 79,000 bpd from
38,000 bpd, according to EIA.
Gulf Coast refinery utilization remained high at 96.5%, edging down from
96.9% the previous week, while crude oil inputs fell by 126,000 bpd to 9.496
million bpd. Utilization remained above the 94% registered in the corresponding
2025 period.
Phillips 66 reported an emissions event at its Borger, Texas, refinery
during the period involving sulfur recovery operations. The event was not
reported to have caused a significant loss of refinery production, leaving
overall PADD 3 refinery operations at elevated levels during the week. The same
operator reported a one-day planned maintenance at its 277,000 bpd Sweeney,
Texas, refinery this week as well.
NYH Weekly: ULSD Falls 8% Despite Historically Tight Stocks
New York Harbor refined-product spot prices fell across the board during the
week ended September 25, led by an almost 8% decline in ULSD even as East Coast
distillate inventories remained historically tight. Jet fuel and CBOB regular
also erased part of the previous week's advances.
ULSD averaged $4.7524 gallon, dropping 39.99cts, or 7.76%, from the previous
week. Even after the decline, the weekly average remained $2.3407, or 97.06%,
above the $2.4117 gallon recorded during the comparable week in 2025, DTN data
showed.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (9/23)
that PADD 1 distillate inventories increased by about 600,000 bbl to 22.2
million bbl during the week ended September 18 from 21.6 million bbl the
previous week. Despite the build, supplies remained 8.2 million bbl below the
30.4 million bbl reported during the comparable week in 2025 and only 2.9
million bbl above the all-time low of 19.3 million bbl reached in late August.
Jet fuel averaged $4.5157 gallon, falling 26.56cts, or 5.55%, from the
previous week. Prices remained $2.0990, or 86.85%, above the $2.4167 gallon
recorded during the comparable week in 2025.
East Coast jet fuel inventories declined by about 300,000 bbl to 10.9
million bbl from 11.2 million bbl the previous week but remained above the 10.5
million bbl reported during the same week of the previous year, EIA data showed.
CBOB regular averaged $3.3924 gallon, down 20.53cts, or 5.71%, from the
previous week. The weekly average remained $1.3861, or 69.09%, above the
$2.0063 gallon recorded during the comparable week in 2025.
PADD 1 gasoline inventories fell to 52.1 million bbl from 52.3 million bbl
the previous week and remained below the 55.9 million bbl held during the
comparable week in 2025. Gasoline imports dropped sharply to 210,000 bpd from
419,000 bpd, according to EIA.
East Coast refinery activity strengthened during the week, with utilization
increasing to 89.2% from 87.7% and crude oil inputs rising by 31,000 bpd to
834,000 bpd. Utilization also stood above the 86.5% reported during the
comparable week in 2025.
Refining operations across the East Coast were relatively uneventful during
the week, with no significant outages, flaring events or other production
issues reported.
USWC Weekly: SF Diesel Plunges 13%, Gasoline Rises
U.S. West Coast (USWC) refined-product spot markets diverged during the week
ended September 25, with ULSD posting double-digit declines in San Francisco
and Portland while California gasoline prices bucked the broader weakness and
increased from the previous week.
San Francisco ULSD registered the largest weekly change among the nine West
Coast products tracked by DTN, dropping 70.25cts, or 12.53%, to average $4.9019
gallon. Despite the weekly decline, the average remained $2.1717, or 81.75%,
above the $2.6565 gallon recorded during the corresponding week in 2025.
Portland ULSD followed with a 63.85cts, or 11.39%, decline to $4.9659
gallon, while Los Angeles ULSD fell 43.25cts, or 8.12%, to $4.8964 gallon.
Portland remained $1.7367, or 60.27%, above its comparable 2025 level, while
Los Angeles stood $2.2617, or 88.47%, higher than during the same week of the
previous year.
The declines reversed the strength seen in West Coast diesel markets the
previous week, when ULSD prices increased across the region.
Jet fuel also weakened across the three West Coast hubs. Los Angeles, San
Francisco and Portland jet fuel each averaged $4.1679 gallon, down 23.00cts, or
5.23%, from $4.3978 gallon the previous week. The weekly average remained
$1.9217, or 82.60%, above the $2.3265 gallon registered during the
corresponding period in 2025.
Gasoline took a different path, particularly in California. San Francisco
CARBOB regular averaged $4.4094 gallon, increasing 9.90cts, or 2.30%, from the
previous week, while Los Angeles CARBOB rose 2.50cts, or 0.60%, to $4.1674
gallon.
San Francisco CARBOB stood $1.9940, or 79.69%, above the $2.5022 gallon
recorded during the same week in 2025. Los Angeles CARBOB was $1.8040, or
70.96%, higher than its corresponding 2025 average of $2.5422 gallon.
Portland sub-octane gasoline moved in the opposite direction, falling
10.30cts, or 2.96%, to average $3.3774 gallon. The weekly average was still
$1.1390, or 51.60%, above the $2.2072 gallon registered during the comparable
period in 2025. The Portland market transitioned from 7.8 RVP to 11.5 RVP
gasoline beginning September 19 as the market shifted into its fall
specification.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (9/23)
that PADD 5 gasoline inventories edged down by about 100,000 bbl to 27.3
million bbl during the week ended September 18 from 27.4 million bbl the
previous week. Inventories remained well below the 30 million bbl reported
during the comparable week in 2025.
West Coast distillate inventories slipped by about 100,000 bbl to 10.3
million bbl from 10.4 million bbl the previous week and remained sharply below
the 12.7 million bbl held during the same period of the previous year. Jet fuel
inventories, meanwhile, increased by about 300,000 bbl to 11.6 million bbl from
11.3 million bbl, but remained below the 12.4 million bbl recorded during the
corresponding week in 2025.
PADD 5 refinery utilization remained elevated at 94.5%, easing slightly from
94.9% the previous week. Crude oil inputs were little changed at 2.058 million
bpd compared with 2.053 million bpd the previous week.
West Coast refinery operations remained relatively stable during the week,
with no major production disruptions reported, keeping regional refinery
activity near the high levels recorded the previous week.
Suncor Commerce City Refinery Plans Maintenance
Suncor Energy reported Friday (9/25) it will conduct maintenance over the
next week at its 103,000 bpd refinery in Commerce City, Colorado, which could
result in increased flaring, according to a community notification issued by
the company.
Suncor did not identify the refinery units involved in the maintenance or
indicate whether production would be affected.
The company reported flaring is an important safety measure and
environmental control used to maintain safe refinery operations.
The Commerce City facility is the only petroleum refinery in Colorado and
primarily produces gasoline, diesel and asphalt, with roughly 95% of its
products remaining within the state.
The refinery also supplies about one-third of the jet fuel used at Denver
International Airport, according to Suncor.
DTN contacted Suncor for additional details on the maintenance but did not
get an immediate response.
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Eases in Sept
U.S. consumer sentiment inched lower in September, with the Index of
Consumer Sentiment dropping 3.6 points to 48.1, according to preliminary data
from the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers released Friday (9/25)
morning. This was above market expectation of 47.8.
Last month, soaring energy costs sparked by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on
Iran led the index to climb to 51.7.
The Current Economic Conditions Index, measuring sentiment about personal
finances and buying conditions, dropped 1 point, or 1.9%, to 50.9 from August.
Year-on-year, the index dropped 15.7%.
The Index of Consumer Expectations, which reflects the economic outlook over
the next 12 months, fell by 5.2 points to 46.3 month-over-month.
"Short-run expected business conditions plunged amid renewed worries that
elevated fuel prices and reescalating trade disputes could pass through to the
economy as a whole," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
According to Hsu, overall, interviews revealed broad agreement across
demographic and political groups that the outlook for the economy has softened
over the course of the year.
Year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.6% month over
month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in
February 2026 prior to the start of the Iran conflict.
Consumers perceive increasing pressure on their costs-of-living both now as
well as in the future, according to the report.
About 55% of consumers cited elevated prices as a negative factor for their
personal finances, up from 53% last month and 44% a year ago.
After declining for two straight months, spontaneous references to gasoline
increased in September to 31% of consumers amid rising fuel prices, the report
stated.
Baker Hughes: N. America Rigs Rise 15 to 807
North American energy drilling activity increased by 15 rigs to reach 807 in
the current week, Baker Hughes' weekly rotary rigs report released Friday
(9/25) showed.
Compared with the corresponding week of 2025, combined rigs for Canada and
the United States were up 68 from the 739 units active at that time, according
to the report.
This week's increase was led by Canada adding 11 rigs to 208, while the U.S.
added four rigs to reach 599.
Oil-directed U.S. rigs rose by three to 455, while gas-directed drilling
increased by one to 135. Miscellaneous rigs in the domestic market were
unchanged at nine.
By trajectory, U.S. vertical rigs increased by four to 15, directional rigs
rose by one to 42, while horizontal rigs fell by one to 541.
Analysis: U.S. Diesel Export Ban Won't Bring Price Relief
Washington's consideration of a diesel export ban to tame rapidly rising
prices risks turning a global supply shock into a self-inflicted domestic
squeeze, as restricting overseas sales could push up prices immediately and
later discourage refinery production, leaving U.S. consumers with little
lasting relief.
Retail diesel prices in the U.S. have continued to appreciate rapidly, with
the national average last week soaring to an unprecedented $6.529 gallon, up
more than $0.24 gallon from just a week earlier, according to Energy
Information Administration (EIA) data published Tuesday (9/23). These
record-highs, however, are the result of supply tightness of a globally priced
and traded commodity, and do not stem from a domestic supply shortage.
In fact, the U.S. is sitting on a sizeable diesel surplus. According to EIA
data, domestic diesel production has averaged over 5.2 million bpd over the
last four weeks, compared to consumption of 3.6 million bpd. While this
imbalance can in part be attributed to the combination of seasonally low demand
and exorbitant margins for middle distillates, a diesel overhang is built into
the system.
Averaged over the year, domestic supply still outpaces demand by 1.1
million bpd, EIA data showed.
This diesel surplus is no fluke, but the result of U.S. fuel demand
realities and refining fundamentals.
In contrast to the European car fleet, personal transportation in the U.S.
overwhelmingly runs on gasoline. This translates into roughly 2.5 times higher
demand for gasoline than for diesel. Domestic refiners must process enough
crude oil to meet this gasoline demand and given the approximate 1.5-2:1
gasoline to diesel yield ratio, the market consequently ends up with excess
diesel which makes its way to international buyers.
In absence of an export outlet, refiners would be incentivized to run at far
lower rates than they have been, especially in the current environment of
record-high diesel cracks and the outsized profitability of products from the
middle of the barrel compared to lighter ones like gasoline.
Lower runs, in turn, mean less supply of all types of fuels, rendering them
more expensive. A diesel export ban, therefore, is not only unlikely to improve
the domestic supply-demand balance, but is guaranteed to raise prices for most
other refined products.
Global context
A ban on diesel exports fails to address the structural reasons behind
sky-high domestic prices: short international supply, and buyers willing to pay
large premiums to get the fuel to where it's actually needed. International
diesel prices have over the past four years been supported by the effects of
large-scale sanctions on Russian oil and product exports, which constrained
supply and, more importantly, necessitated an expensive rearrangement of trade
flows.
On top of this, the world is now facing a diesel drought that is largely the
result of a more than six-month long war in the Middle East that has led to
crude-shortage induced refining lulls, shut-in product flows from the Persian
Gulf and refining capacity destruction.
On the contrary, an export ban may even initially push prices higher, given
that retail prices everywhere are closely connected to futures contracts
reflective of global supply-demand dispositions and product availability.
Even after this initial spike, any price relief at the pump may be
short-lived, as refiners would be forced to throttle production in the absence
of access to the export market. The situation is even worse for
import-dependent regions of the U.S., where tightening global availability
stemming from a U.S. export ban could easily have the opposite effect from the
one intended.
EPA Returns Midwest Storage Tank Sites to Productive Use
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said its monitoring and
remediation partnerships with Tribal communities returned a record number of
underground storage tank sites to productive use.
"In 2026, EPA addressed 10 leaking underground storage tank sites in
Michigan and Minnesota, removed a leaking tank in Wisconsin while improving
cleanup standards, and saved taxpayers more than $550,000," an agency statement
released Thursday (9/25) said.
Nine of the closures addressed releases at four facilities in the Saginaw
Chippewa territory near Mount Pleasant, Michigan. Five were associated with the
operating Next Door Store #5010 gasoline station; two with the operating Next
Door Store #5039 gasoline station; one with the operating Sagamok Shell
gasoline station; and one with Krapohl Ford Lincoln Mercury, an operating
automobile dealership, oil-change facility and body shop.
The remaining closure addressed a release at Shakopee Dakota Convenience
Store #2, an operating gasoline station at the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux
territory near Prior Lake, Minnesota. EPA also removed one tank from Mole Lake
Smoke Shop, a former gas station, located near Crandon, Wisconsin.
In L'Anse, Michigan, EPA worked extensively with Keweenaw Bay Indian
Community to test whether contamination had spread offsite from Lute's Corner
Store.
An estimated 542,000 underground storage tanks nationwide hold regulated
products, primarily gasoline and diesel fuel at gas stations. Leaks or poor
maintenance can contaminate soil and groundwater and cause fires, explosions or
hazardous vapors.
EPA is responsible for monitoring and remediating UST sites in Tribal
territories and has identified more than 60 potentially leaking tanks in EPA's
Great Lakes region.
Diesel Racks Break Below $5 as Selloff Deepens
U.S. wholesale ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) rack prices fell across all
five PADDs for a second consecutive day on Friday (9/25) pushing the national
average below $5 gallon, while conventional gasoline prices also edged lower.
Nationwide ULSD rack prices averaged $4.9863 gallon, down 10.17cts from the
previous trading session's $5.0881 gallon, according to DTN data.
Conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices averaged $3.5990 gallon, down
1.24cts from Thursday's $3.6113 gallon.
The continued pullback came as oil markets weighed signs of possible
diplomatic progress in the U.S.-Iran conflict. U.S. and Iranian negotiators
have discussed a phased path that could include reopening the Strait of Hormuz,
easing some of the supply concerns that have supported crude and
refined-product prices.
The front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract traded near $92.51 bbl Friday
morning, down $2.08 on the day. October-delivery New York Harbor ULSD futures
fell 3.03cts to around $4.70 gallon, while RBOB gasoline dropped 11.02cts to
around $3.45 gallon.
Refining margins also continued to retreat from recent highs. The diesel
crack traded near $104.77 bbl, down sharply from Wednesday's weekly high of
$112.97 bbl, while the gasoline crack fell $2.14 to around $52.96 bbl.
ULSD racks declined across all five PADDs. West Coast values posted the
largest drop, falling 19.32cts to $5.4062 gallon, followed by Midwest prices,
which declined 12.02cts to $4.9867 gallon. Gulf Coast ULSD fell 11.36cts to
$4.8411 gallon, Rocky Mountain values dropped 8.32cts to $5.3095 gallon and
East Coast prices declined 3.38cts to $4.8250 gallon.
PADD 5 maintained the widest ULSD premium to the national average at
41.99cts, while PADD 1 held the largest discount at 16.13cts.
Gasoline racks were mixed regionally. Gulf Coast values posted the largest
decline, falling 2.51cts to $3.4408 gallon, followed by East Coast prices,
which dropped 2.28cts to $3.4216 gallon. Midwest gasoline fell 2.15cts to
$3.3357 gallon, while Rocky Mountain values edged up 0.43ct to $4.0879 gallon
and West Coast prices rose 3.52cts to $4.4284 gallon.
PADD 5 maintained the largest gasoline premium to the national average at
82.94cts, while PADD 2 held the widest discount at 26.33cts.
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