MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News Sept 11:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- Midwest Weekly: Group 3 CBOB Up Over 15% on Supply Crunch
-- NYH Weekly: Jet Fuel Jumps 10% as Stocks Fall
-- USGC Weekly: Jet Fuel Rises Nearly 10%, ULSD Up 7%
-- USWC Weekly: San Francisco ULSD Rises Nearly 7%
-- Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rigs Up by 6 to 798
-- AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 12.5% for Week Ended Sept 5
-- IEA: Global Oil Demand to Fall 2.5M bpd Amid High Prices
-- U.S. Rack ULSD Jumps to $5.37; Gasoline Up 16.13cts
NEWS
Midwest Weekly: Group 3 CBOB Up Over 15% on Supply Crunch
Group 3 CBOB surged over 15% on the week to lead Midwest spot fuel markets
higher as physical demand tightened ahead of the regional agricultural harvest.
CBOB in the Midcontinent gained 45.50cts, or 15.43%, on the week to average
$3.4032 gallon, up from $2.9482 gallon a week ago, DTN data showed.
PADD 2 cash gasoline markets also mounted a broad recovery across regional
distribution networks. Chicago CBOB rose 24.90cts, or 8.33%, to average $3.2372
gallon. At the pipeline level, Buckeye Complex CBOB gained 17.70cts, or 5.86%,
to average $3.1992 gallon, while Wolverine CBOB advanced 24.80cts, or 8.23%, to
average $3.2622 gallon.
The higher cash gasoline prices reflected strong underlying futures support
and physical market adjustments following the contract rollover to October
NYMEX RBOB.
Distillate cash markets posted solid single- to double-digit percentage
gains across all regional hubs, underpinned by seasonal agricultural demand
expectations.
Chicago ULSD rallied 31.05cts, or 7.00%, on the week to average $4.7460
gallon, while Group 3 ULSD jumped 26.47cts, or 5.96%, to average $4.7098
gallon. Buckeye Complex ULSD and Wolverine ULSD both surged 31.35cts, or 7.05%,
on the week to average $4.7600 gallon.
Aviation fuels matched the upward trajectory across the PADD 2 complex.
Chicago jet fuel advanced 24.15cts, or 6.31%, to average $4.0660 gallon, while
Group 3 jet fuel rose 10.55cts, or 2.66%, to average $4.0760 gallon.
The broad price gains came even as regional refiners ran near full capacity
ahead of upcoming fall maintenance schedules. Energy Information Administration
data showed PADD 2 refiners running flat out, with regional crude utilization
hovering at 101.6%.
Despite heavy processing throughput, Midwest fuel balances remain tight
against year-ago levels, keeping spot basis differentials and cash prices firm
across all major regional trading hubs.
PADD 2 gasoline inventories fell by 200,000 bbl during the week ended
September 4 to stand at 43.2 million bbl, the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status
Report showed. Year-on-year, regional gasoline stocks fell by 2.4 million bbl
from the 45.6 million bbl recorded during the corresponding week of 2025.
Distillate stocks decreased by 300,000 bbl on the week to 28.5 million bbl,
retreating from the prior week's seven-week high. The draw placed regional
inventories of the product at 2.1 million bbl lower than the 30.6 million bbl
logged during the corresponding week last year.
Regional processing operations have, meanwhile, continued without major
unplanned outages. BP said its 440,000 bpd Whiting refinery in Indiana has been
operating normally under business continuity plans despite an ongoing labor
lockout of approximately 800 United Steelworkers union members.
Uncertainty surrounding Explorer Pipeline's Glenpool, Oklahoma tank farm
facility also continues to weigh on regional physical markets following an
August 17 fire that suspended northbound product movements on the 1,830-mile
line.
NYH Weekly: Jet Fuel Jumps 10% as Stocks Fall
New York Harbor refined-product spot prices advanced during the week ended
September 11, led by a more than 10% jump in jet fuel as East Coast aviation
fuel inventories declined. ULSD and CBOB regular also strengthened, while
regional distillate stocks rebounded from the previous week's all-time low.
Jet fuel averaged $4.6139 gallon, up 42.43cts, or 10.13%, from the previous
week. The weekly average was $2.5791, more than double the level recorded
during the comparable week in 2025, DTN data showed.
The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday (9/10) that PADD 1
jet fuel inventories fell by 500,000 bbl to 10.7 million bbl during the week
ended September 4. Stocks remained 400,000 bbl above the 10.3 million bbl
reported during the same week of the previous year. Jet fuel imports increased
to 19,000 bpd from 13,000 bpd.
ULSD averaged $4.8596 gallon, climbing 29.01cts, or 6.35%, from the previous
week. Prices were $2.7641, or 120.83%, above the $2.2875 gallon recorded during
the comparable week in 2025.
East Coast distillate inventories recovered by 2.4 million bbl to 21.7
million bbl after reaching an all-time low of 19.3 million bbl the previous
week. Despite the build, stockpiles remained 8.6 million bbl below the 30.3
million bbl reported during the same week of the previous year. Distillate
imports surged to 149,000 bpd from 49,000 bpd and exceeded the 134,000 bpd
recorded during the comparable week in 2025.
CBOB regular increased 25.67cts, or 7.77%, to average $3.5589 gallon. The
weekly average stood $1.3689, or 61.93%, above the $2.2104 gallon recorded
during the comparable week in 2025.
PADD 1 gasoline inventories added 400,000 bbl to 53 million bbl but remained
2.7 million bbl below the 55.7 million bbl reported during the same week of the
previous year. Gasoline imports rose to 320,000 bpd from 278,000 bpd but
remained below the 503,000 bpd recorded during the comparable week in 2025.
East Coast crude oil inventories edged down by 100,000 bbl to 8.4 million
bbl, while crude imports increased to 707,000 bpd from 530,000 bpd. Refinery
utilization fell 1.3 percentage points to 85.3% from 86.6%, even as crude oil
inputs edged up by 1,000 bpd to 789,000 bpd.
No refinery outages, flaring events or other significant production issues
were reported across the region during the week.
USGC Weekly: Jet Fuel Rises Nearly 10%, ULSD Up 7%
U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) refined-product spot prices climbed during the week
ended September 11, led by a nearly 10% increase in jet fuel, while ULSD and
CBOB regular also strengthened. The rally was supported by refinery utilization
near full capacity and a drawdown in regional distillate inventories.
Jet fuel averaged $4.4287 gallon, up 39.91cts, or 9.91%, from the previous
week. The weekly average was $2.4559, or 117.23%, above the $2.0950 gallon
recorded during the comparable week in 2025, DTN data showed.
The Energy Information Administration reported Thursday (9/10) that PADD 3
jet fuel inventories rebounded by 1.3 million bbl to 15.6 million bbl during
the week ended September 4 after reaching a three-month low of 14.3 million bbl
the previous week. Stocks were 2.4 million bbl above the 13.2 million bbl
reported during the same week of the previous year. No jet fuel imports were
reported.
ULSD at the Houston origin of the Colonial Pipeline averaged $4.8446 gallon,
rising 31.26cts, or 6.90%, from the previous week. Prices stood $2.7349, or
122.72%, above the $2.2285 gallon recorded during the comparable week in 2025.
Gulf Coast distillate inventories fell by 200,000 bbl to 42.5 million bbl
after increasing by 3.1 million bbl the prior week. Stockpiles remained 1.7
million bbl below the 44.2 million bbl reported during the same week of the
previous year. PADD 3, a net exporter of distillate fuel, reported no imports
during the week.
CBOB regular increased 15.84cts, or 5.08%, to average $3.2776 gallon. The
weekly average was $1.3613, or 70.79%, above the $1.9229 gallon recorded during
the comparable week in 2025.
Motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.1 million bbl to 77.3 million bbl,
reversing the previous week's 1 million bbl decline. Supplies remained at 4.6
million bbl below the 81.9 million bbl reported during the same week of the
previous year. Gasoline imports fell to 8,000 bpd from 36,000 bpd.
PADD 3 crude oil inventories rose by 2.4 million bbl to 247.5 million bbl,
while imports climbed to 1.993 million bpd from 1.721 million bpd. Refinery
utilization increased to 98.3% from 97.7%, with crude oil inputs rising to
9.730 million bpd from 9.600 million bpd.
Several refinery events were reported during the week. PEMEX's Deer Park
refinery experienced flaring Sunday (9/6) after storms caused a power loss that
affected compressors, while ExxonMobil's Baytown refinery reported an emissions
event Tuesday (9/8). Valero also began five days of scheduled maintenance
Thursday (9/10) at its 200,000 bpd McKee refinery involving the FCCU and
hydrocracking-related equipment, with work scheduled through Tuesday (9/15). No
prolonged refinery outages were reported across the Gulf Coast during the week.
USWC Weekly: San Francisco ULSD Rises Nearly 7%
U.S. West Coast refined-product spot prices were mixed during the week ended
September 11, with ULSD and gasoline strengthening across the region while jet
fuel edged down. San Francisco ULSD showed the steepest increases, climbing
nearly 7%, as PADD 5 gasoline inventories declined for a fourth consecutive
week.
San Francisco ULSD averaged $5.3299 gallon, up 33.74cts, or 6.76%, from the
previous week. Portland ULSD rose 30.34cts, or 6.10%, to $5.2769 gallon, while
Los Angeles ULSD added 12.94cts, or 2.61%, to average $5.0919 gallon.
Regional distillate inventories built by 200,000 bbl to 10.1 million bbl
during the week ended September 4 but remained below the 12.1 million bbl
reported during the same week of the previous year, the Energy Information
Administration reported Thursday (9/10). Distillate imports fell to 21,000 bpd
from 42,000 bpd the prior week and were below the 50,000 bpd reported during
the comparable period in 2025.
Gasoline prices also strengthened across the West Coast. San Francisco
CARBOB regular rose 19.58cts, or 5.09%, to average $4.0420 gallon, while Los
Angeles CARBOB climbed 16.78cts, or 4.50%, to $3.8980 gallon. Portland
sub-octane increased 8.38cts, or 2.36%, to average $3.6340 gallon.
PADD 5 gasoline inventories fell by 100,000 bbl to 27.1 million bbl, marking
a fourth consecutive weekly decline and remaining below the 30.4 million bbl
reported during the same week of the previous year. Gasoline imports jumped to
120,000 bpd from 22,000 bpd the prior week and were above the 67,000 bpd
recorded during the comparable week in 2025.
Jet fuel was the only product to weaken, with Los Angeles, San Francisco and
Portland prices each edging down 0.21cts, or 0.05%, to average $4.0939 gallon.
West Coast jet fuel inventories fell by 200,000 bbl to 11.2 million bbl and
were slightly below the 11.3 million bbl reported during the same week of the
previous year. Jet fuel imports rose to 75,000 bpd from 66,000 bpd but remained
below the 120,000 bpd recorded during the comparable period in 2025.
PADD 5 crude oil inventories dropped by 2.7 million bbl to 45 million bbl,
while crude imports declined to 1.024 million bpd from 1.144 million bpd.
Refinery utilization rose to 93.2% from 92.8% the previous week.
No refinery outages, flaring events or other significant production issues
were reported across the region during the week.
Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rigs Up by 6 to 798
North American energy drilling activity rose by six rigs to reach 798 in the
current week, Baker Hughes' weekly rotary rigs report released Friday (9/11)
showed.
Year on year, combined rigs for Canada and the United States were up 73 from
the 725 units active in the exact same week of 2025, according to the report.
This week's increase was driven equally by both countries, with the U.S. and
Canada adding three rigs each.
Oil-directed U.S. rigs rose by one to 450, while gas-directed drilling
numbers increased by two to stand at 132. Miscellaneous rigs in the domestic
market were unchanged to stay at nine.
By trajectory, U.S. horizontal rigs increased by one to 536, vertical units
gained two to 12, and directional rigs rose by one to 43.
AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 12.5% for Week Ended Sept 5
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports that petroleum and
petroleum product carloads totaled 11,268 during the week ended September 5, up
12.5% from the same week a year ago.
AAR: Weekly U.S. Rail Traffic
September 5, 2026
Year-To-Date
Cars Y/Y change
(%) Cumulative Y/Y change (%)
Total Carloads 234,397 8.9%
7,986,328 2.8%
Petroleum and Products 11,268 12.5%
386,667 7.5%
Total Intermodal Units 299,148 18.0%
9,904,325 4.2%
Total Traffic 533,545 13.8%
17,890,653
IEA: Global Oil Demand to Fall 2.5M bpd Amid High Prices
World oil consumption is projected to plunge by 2.5 million bpd year-on-year
in 2026 as surging fuel prices and chronic product shortages triggered by the
prolonged Middle East conflict leads to demand destruction, the International
Energy Agency (IEA) reported Friday (9/11).
"Steep losses of petrochemical feedstocks and refined product supplies,
along with higher fuel prices, notably for diesel, will continue to weigh on
consumption", and force refinery cutbacks in major Asian import markets, the
IEA said its September monthly report.
The 2.5 million bpd demand decline forecast by the Paris-based global energy
watchdog is significantly steeper than the 1.6 million bpd drop it estimated in
August. The projection came as both the world's leading crude oil benchmarks --
North Sea Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate -- rose above $100 bbl this
week, recapturing the three-digit levels they traded at in April and May,
respectively.
Reports that Iran was in negotiations with Gulf states to establish a
jointly managed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz weighed on prices.
At the same time, however, physical oil supply disruptions and risks to flows
have continued to grow. Ship tracking data showed that daily transits of the
oil chokepoint fell back into the single digits on Thursday.
Global observed oil stocks drew down by 95 million bbl in August alone,
bringing cumulative global inventory draws since February to 507 million bbl,
the IEA observed. Oil on water declined by 65 million bbl as Middle East
maritime traffic suffered renewed attacks.
"With buffers shrinking and the global refining system stretched to the
limit, the need for progress in resolving the conflict in the Middle East --
and the Russia-Ukraine war -- is greater than ever to avoid further market
tightening and demand destruction," the report added.
With the diplomatic standoff between Washington and Tehran delaying any
normalization of Persian Gulf oil flows into 2027, the IEA also projected a
wider global supply deficit this year -- at 1.74 million bpd, versus its prior
estimate of 1.27 million bpd. Total global oil production is set to drop by 5.7
million bpd year-on-year to 100.7 million bpd, the agency added.
Despite record-high Atlantic Basin refining margins and wide crack spreads,
global refining capacity remains constrained by crude availability. August
refinery throughput remained down 4.2 million bpd year-on-year at 81.4 million
bpd, with full-year global refinery runs forecast to drop by 2.6 million bpd.
U.S. Rack ULSD Jumps to $5.37; Gasoline Up 16.13cts
U.S. wholesale ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) rack prices rose in all five
PADDs on Friday (9/11), as diesel futures remained above $5 gallon for the
first time on record as the escalation in the Middle East continues. Gasoline
racks also increased across all regions.
Nationwide ULSD rack prices averaged $5.3657 gallon, up 16.10cts from the
previous trading session. Friday's average was double the price recorded in the
same day of last year when it stood at $2.5842 gallon, according to DTN data.
Conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices averaged $3.5032 gallon, up
16.13cts from Thursday. The national average stood 54.9% above the $2.2613
gallon reported the previous year.
The bullish sentiment was supported by a futures rally as the NYMEX WTI
futures contract reached a session high of $104.46 bbl before paring gains to
trade above $99 bbl Friday morning. Strength was especially pronounced in
distillates, with front-month New York Harbor ULSD hitting an all times record
of $5 gallon for the first time on record.
Strong refining margins added support to the diesel market. The diesel crack
spread traded above $112 bbl for the first time, compared with a gasoline crack
above $41 bbl, giving refiners a strong incentive to maximize distillate
production.
That strength was reflected across regional ULSD racks. West Coast values
posted the largest increase, rising 22.60cts to $6.0297 gallon on the day,
followed by Gulf Coast prices, which jumped 19.77cts to $5.1968 gallon. Midwest
ULSD increased 19.41cts to $5.3055 gallon, Rocky Mountain values rose 17.69cts
to $5.4185 gallon and East Coast prices advanced 7.10cts to $5.1885 gallon.
PADD 5 maintained the widest premium to the national average at 66.40cts, while
PADD 1 held the largest discount at 17.72cts.
Gasoline racks also rebounded sharply on Friday after falling across all
regions Thursday. East Coast values rose 17.60cts to $3.3499 gallon, Gulf Coast
gasoline climbed 16.99cts to $3.3462 gallon and Midwest prices increased
15.78cts to $3.2783 gallon. Rocky Mountain values rose 14.77cts to $4.0122
gallon and West Coast gasoline added 13.03cts to $4.2178 gallon.
The gasoline rebound mirrored a hike on RBOB futures, which reached a
session high of $3.4698 gallon before retreating to around $3.3467 gallon. PADD
5 maintained the largest gasoline premium to the national average at 71.46cts,
while PADD 2 held the widest discount at 22.49cts.
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