ExxonMobil: Fossil Fuel Demand Steady Through 2050


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- ExxonMobil expects world reliance on fossil fuels to 
remain steady through 2050, even with a multi-fold surge in the power 
generation capacity of key renewable sources solar and wind.

   In its 2025 Global Outlook, the world's largest energy company projects that 
global oil consumption will stabilize after 2030, remaining above 100 million 
bpd and reaching approximately 105 million bpd by 2050.

   ExxonMobil projects demand could still reach 65 million bpd in restrictive 
scenarios that include low-carbon climate pathways.

   Such stable demand will face severe challenges from naturally declining 
production, especially from fast-depleting sources like U.S. shale.

   ExxonMobil emphasizes that stopping all new investments in oil would cause 
production to fall rapidly, projecting a severe 70 million bpd shortfall by 
2030 that would spark massive economic disruption. A scenario limiting 
investment only to existing fields would slow the decline rate; yet, it would 
still fall well short of the oil volumes required even in climate goal models.

   Natural gas faces similar supply constraints, necessitating significant and 
sustained investment to maintain current production and develop new resources 
globally. Without new capital deployed, global natural gas supply is 
anticipated to drop by 11% annually, creating a shortfall equal to half of the 
world's projected demand by 2030.

   Exxon Mobil expects that liquefied natural gas (LNG)  to nearly double in 
volume and meet over 20% of the world's gas demand by 2050. New LNG supplies 
are forecasted to emerge predominantly from North America, the Middle East, and 
Africa, driven primarily by sustained economic growth across Asia Pacific 
nations.

   Regarding global electricity demand, the oil company predicts it will surge 
by 70% by 2050, primarily due to rising living standards in developing 
economies worldwide. Renewable energy, specifically solar and wind, is slated 
for substantial growth, increasing its share of global electricity generation 
from less than 15% today to over 40% by 2050.

   Solar generation is projected to rise from 8.4 quadrillion British Thermal 
Units  (BTUs) in 2024 to 40.7 quadrillion BTUs in 2050, accompanying data 
released by ExxonMobil showed.

   Wind generation is projected to increase from 8.8 quadrillion BTUs in 2024 
to 36.4 quadrillion BTUs in 2050.

   The growth in renewables is expected to displace coal, with lower-emission 
natural gas also gaining share to meet the 70% increase in global electricity 
demand.

    




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