MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Daniel Rodriguez Huerta
DTN Energy Editor
MarketWire Afternoon News Nov 12:
Updated at 5:45 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- FAA Halts Departing Flights Amid Communications Outage
-- Trump Extends Jones Act Waiver Another 90 Days
-- CEC: California Gasoline Output Rises as Runs Climb
-- CEC: California Diesel Stocks Rise 114,000 Bbl on Week
-- Jones Act Fuel Waiver Faces Nov. 15 Deadline
-- Baker Hughes: North America Rigs Rise By 7 to 834
-- PBF Torrance CA Refinery Schedules Flaring
-- U.S. Refiners Just Shattered Another Record
-- EIA: US NatGas Storage Reports 61 Bcf Weekly Injection
-- CEC Still Weighing Refinery Resupply Rule
-- Crude Market Rebalances as Diesel Stays Tight
-- IEA Sees First Signs of Oil Market Rebalancing Since War
-- Weekly Recap: U.S. Rack Gas, Diesel Fall 13cts
-- Crude Market Rebalances as Diesel Stays Tight
NEWS
FAA Halts Departing Flights Amid Communications Outage
The Federal Aviation Administration halted all departing flights across the
United States on Friday (11/13) after a communications outage hit its air
traffic control system.
Markwayne Mullin, secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, told
reporters at the White House there was "no indication as of yet that this was a
nefarious attack," and called the outage a telecommunications failure. He said
officials had not ruled out any cause, including a cyberattack.
Sean Duffy, secretary of the Department of Transportation, said in a X post
that a communication issue affected all Air Route Traffic Control Centers and
that FAA technicians were investigating.
An FAA advisory said departures would stay on hold until further notice,
citing safety and extraordinary circumstances, while inbound international
landings would be managed case by case.
The stoppage began shortly before 4 pm ET. FlightAware counted more than
9,000 delayed U.S. flights and about 1,200 cancellations as 5:15 pm ET.
Trump Extends Jones Act Waiver Another 90 Days
President Donald Trump extended the Jones Act waiver for another 90 days
Friday (11/13), allowing eligible foreign-flagged vessels to continue
transporting petroleum products between U.S. ports beyond Sunday's November 15
deadline, according to multiple media reports citing the White House.
The extension maintains the case-by-case approval process introduced in
August, which requires a review of U.S.-flagged vessel availability before
qualifying foreign-flagged shipments can proceed.
Since the waiver was first issued in March, approximately 90 million bbl of
additional petroleum shipments have moved between U.S. ports, including 27
million bbl of gasoline, 26 million bbl of crude oil and 6 million bbl of
renewable fuels, according to White House figures cited in the reports.
The additional authorization preserves shipping flexibility for petroleum
movements from the U.S. Gulf Coast to East Coast and West Coast markets, where
waterborne shipments help supplement regional fuel supplies.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) had not published updated guidance
confirming the extension as of Friday afternoon. The agency previously
acknowledged a DTN inquiry regarding the waiver deadline but had not provided
additional information.
CEC: California Gasoline Output Rises as Runs Climb
California refiners raised total gasoline output by 127,000 bbl, or 2.47%,
from the previous week to 5.26 million bbl in the week ended November 6, as
refinery runs rose at a similar rate, California Energy Commission (CEC) data
released Thursday (11/12) showed.
Crude intake rose 222,000 bbl, or 2.72%, from the previous week to 8.39
million bbl, and stood 407,000 bbl, or 5.10%, above the same week a year ago.
Against the five-year November range, runs were 2.51 million bbl, or 23.01%,
below the high and 542,000 bbl, or 6.91%, above the low.
CARB gasoline output edged down 59,000 bbl, or 1.24%, week over week to 4.72
million bbl and ran 474,000 bbl, or 9.14%, below a year earlier. In
non-California gasoline, production rose 186,000 bbl, or 52.54%, from the week
before to 540,000 bbl, more than double the year-ago level, a gap of 293,000
bbl.
Total gasoline output was 181,000 bbl, or 3.33%, below last year's level. It
also trailed the five-year November high by 1.88 million bbl, or 26.34%, but
exceeded the low by 307,000 bbl, or 6.20%.
Weekly gasoline stocks, counting blending components, edged up 11,000 bbl,
or 0.10%, from the prior week to 10.32 million bbl, as blending component
stocks gained 98,000 bbl, or 2.12%, to 4.73 million bbl. CARB gasoline stocks
fell 223,000 bbl, or 4.29%, to 4.98 million bbl last week. The total was
161,000 bbl, or 1.59%, above the corresponding week a year ago and 880,000 bbl,
or 9.33%, above the five-year low for November.
Crude oil stocks in the region rose 457,000 bbl, or 5.49%, from a week
earlier to 8.78 million bbl, the highest since October 9. Still, they were 4.06
million bbl, or 31.62%, below a year ago and 2.26 million bbl, or 20.44%, under
the lowest level for any November in five years.
CEC: California Diesel Stocks Rise 114,000 Bbl on Week
California diesel inventories rose 114,000 bbl, or 4.62%, during the week
ended November 6 to 2.58 million bbl, with CARB diesel stocks reaching their
highest level since July 24, California Energy Commission (CEC) data showed.
CARB diesel stocks rose 259,000 bbl, or 22.08%, from the prior week to 1.43
million bbl, the highest since July 24, while other diesel stocks fell 145,000
bbl, or 11.22%, to 1.15 million bbl.
Compared with the five-year November range, whose lows were set in the past
two Novembers, CARB diesel and total diesel stocks were 78,000 bbl, or 5.76%,
and 158,000 bbl, or 6.53%, above their respective lows.
California's total diesel output rose 253,000 bbl, or 19.31%, from the
previous week to 1.56 million bbl, driven by a sharp rebound in CARB diesel
production.
At 1.16 million bbl, CARB diesel output was the highest since the week ended
April 10, up 505,000 bbl, or 76.86%, from the week before and 116,000 bbl, or
11.09%, above the same week last year. Other diesel -- which groups ULSD
meeting EPA requirements, renewable diesel and high sulfur diesel -- fell
252,000 bbl, or 38.59%, week over week to 401,000 bbl, although that was 26,000
bbl, or 6.93%, higher than a year earlier.
Total diesel output still trailed the five-year November high by 815,000
bbl, or 34.27%, though it remained 339,000 bbl, or 27.70%, above the low for
the month. CARB diesel alone was more than double its own five-year low, a gap
of 692,000 bbl.
Jet fuel output eased 27,000 bbl, or 1.17%, from a week earlier to 2.28
million bbl, which was 474,000 bbl, or 26.27%, above the corresponding week
last year but 252,000 bbl, or 9.96%, below the five-year November high. Jet
stocks rose 135,000 bbl, or 4.78%, over the same period to 2.96 million bbl,
20,000 bbl, or 0.67%, short of last year's level yet 356,000 bbl, or 13.66%,
above the five-year November low.
Jones Act Fuel Waiver Faces Nov. 15 Deadline
A Jones Act waiver allowing certain foreign-flagged vessels to transport
petroleum products between U.S. ports is due to expire Sunday (11/15),
potentially reducing shipping flexibility for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel
moving from the U.S. Gulf Coast to East Coast and West Coast markets.
The Jones Act generally requires cargo transported between U.S. ports to be
carried aboard vessels built, owned and registered in the United States and
meeting U.S. crewing requirements. Under the current waiver, foreign-flagged
voyages undergo individual reviews to determine whether qualified domestic
vessels are available.
The Department of Homeland Security has already extended the waiver twice,
after issuing it the first time in March. It remains to be seen if the Trump
administration will extend the grace another time.
The last approval was for 90 days beginning August 17, according to guidance
issued by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Under the current
authorization, eligible petroleum cargoes must be loaded aboard participating
vessels by 11:59 p.m. ET on November 15.
A White House official told media on Thursday (11/12) that no decision has
been made on the matter. If a further waiver is approved, industry sources say
the extension would preserve the stricter case-by-case, individual-voyage
review introduced during the August extension that required vessel-availability
checks through the Maritime Administration and Department of Defense before
loading.
CBP acknowledged a DTN inquiry regarding the November 15 deadline and a
possible extension but did not provide additional information by publication
time. No further extension has been confirmed through official agency
announcements.
First issued March 17, the waiver has provided additional transportation
options for petroleum shipments between domestic ports, contributing to
increased waterborne movements from the Gulf Coast during the spring, according
to the Energy Information Administration.
In an August 17 analysis of April and May shipping activity, EIA reported
that Gulf Coast petroleum shipments to the West Coast reached 190,000 bpd in
April, up from less than 30,000 bpd in January and February. The increase
included gasoline blending components, finished gasoline, jet fuel and crude
oil, and expanding flows beyond the renewable diesel shipments that had
previously dominated the route.
A similar increase occurred along the Gulf Coast-to-East Coast route, where
petroleum shipments reached a record 1.2 million bpd in April, approximately
11% above the previous high. Gasoline blending components accounted for a
record 620,000 bpd, while distillate shipments reached 220,000 bpd, EIA
reported.
Although total waterborne movements to the East Coast declined 12% in May,
crude shipments along the route increased to a record 180,000 bpd. The figures
cover the entire East Coast - rather than New York Harbor alone - including
Florida, which relies heavily on waterborne fuel shipments from the Gulf Coast
due to its limited petroleum product pipeline connections.
Baker Hughes: North America Rigs Rise By 7 to 834
North American energy drilling activity rose by seven rigs to 834 in the
current week, Baker Hughes' weekly rotary rigs report released Friday (11/13)
showed.
Compared with the corresponding week of 2025, combined rigs for Canada and
the United States were up 97 from the 737 units active during that period,
according to the report.
This week's increase was driven by Canada adding 10 rigs to 233, while the
U.S. dropped three rigs to 601.
Oil-directed U.S. rigs were unchanged at 463, while gas-directed drilling
fell by four to 127. Miscellaneous rigs rose by one to 11.
By trajectory, U.S. horizontal rigs decreased by two to 527, while
directional rigs also fell by two to 49. Vertical rigs were unchanged at 21.
PBF Torrance CA Refinery Schedules Flaring
PBF Energy has a planned flaring event at its 166,000 bpd Torrance,
California refinery, estimated to begin Friday (11/13) at 5:30 p.m. PT and end
Sunday (11/15) before midnight PT, according to a filing with the South Coast
Air Quality Management District (SCAQM).
The filing estimated the flaring activity could exceed reporting thresholds
for more than 500,000 standard cubic feet (scf) of vent gas flow, more than 100
pounds of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and more than 500 pounds of sulfur
oxides (SOx) over the entire event. SCAQM doesn't report affected units.
The planned flaring follows an emergency flaring event that began at the
refinery Wednesday (11/11) before midnight PT. The filing for that event listed
no stop time as of publishing time.
The Torrance refinery has reported multiple flaring events since July, tied
to both planned maintenance and operational issues. The refinery completed a
turnaround in the first quarter that PBF had scheduled for its catalytic
hydrodesulfurization (CHD) and hydrotreating (HDT) units.
LA CARBOB on a regular basis to the NYMEX RBOB futures contract was 35cts
gallon with an outright price of $2.9815 gallon at 11:45 am ET, up 9cts and
$0.1298 gallon respectively from the Tuesday (11/10) close.
Analysis: U.S. Refiners Just Shattered Another Record
U.S. refiners processed nearly the same volume of crude oil last week, as
they did in the first week of July, exceeding throughput levels in every week
in July last year, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data
published Thursday. Refining margins remained healthy despite some weakness in
lighter products, particularly in light of a tightening global diesel market
amid global refining activity hitting a seasonal trough.
Net crude oil inputs averaged 17.05 million bpd in the week ending November
6, up 1.07 million bpd year-on-year, and the most on record for the
corresponding reporting week, EIA said. This latest record is especially
remarkable when viewed in a seasonal context. Refining activity jumped near
levels typically only seen during the peak refining months in the summer. On
the five-year seasonal average, net inputs during the first week of November
lag the pace at the beginning of July by some 900,000 bpd.
Refining activity, already elevated throughout the summer, has also
rebounded unusually early following a shallow and brief fall maintenance
season. Over the past four weeks, crude oil demand was nearly 1.2 million bpd,
or 7.7%, higher than in the same period last year, and 1 million bpd above the
four-year seasonal average - despite having since lost significant refining
capacity.
Domestic refiners have little incentive to pump the brakes. On the contrary,
they are set to profit even more from the current tightness in global refined
fuels supply as sky-high freight costs cut into the margins of most global
refiners who are significantly more dependent on tankers for their input
stream. Meanwhile, U.S. refiners are more shielded than anywhere else.
The International Energy Agency's newest monthly oil market report released
Friday (11/13) highlighted an uneven supply recovery. While the crude oil
market has shown signs of rebalancing, refined product supplies remained tight,
particularly for diesel.
In contrast to crude oil exports, refined product flows from the Middle East
remain at only half of their pre-war pace. Meanwhile, damaged refineries across
the Persian Gulf and Russia are expected to experience a slower restart than
shut-in oil rigs.
For the foreseeable future, the crude-fuel price divergence is set to
continue, translating to high product cracks that should compensate for a
decent portion of higher feedstock and transportation costs.
EIA: US NatGas Storage Reports 61 Bcf Weekly Injection
Energy Information Administration data released Friday (11/13) show a 61
billion cubic feet injection into U.S. natural gas storage to 3.862 trillion
cubic feet in the week ended November 6.
Natural gas in U.S. storage is 2.3% lower than last year and 2% above the
five-year average of 3.787 Tcf.
Regionally, EIA reports the East registered a 12 Bcf injection to 938 Bcf,
2.7% more than a year ago and 3.1% higher than the five-year average.
Natural gas in storage in the Midwest increased 18 Bcf week-on-week to 1129
Bcf, a 1.3% surplus compared to the same week a year ago and 2.5% higher than
the five-year average.
Mountain region natural gas in storage increased 2 Bcf, down 9.7%
year-on-year to 4.4% above the five-year average.
South Central storage rose 27 Bcf to 1235 Bcf, 6.1% less than in the same
week last year and 0.3% below the five-year average.
CEC Still Weighing Refinery Resupply Rule
The California Energy Commission (CEC) has yet to decide requirements for
fuel resupply lost during planned refinery maintenance, after preliminary
analysis found no consistent price pattern around outages.
AB X2-1, passed by lawmakers in 2024 after sharp price spikes, gave the
commission authority to set resupply planning rules for planned refinery
maintenance. The law assumes planned maintenance contributes to supply
shortfalls and higher prices; a premise CEC is still testing.
In four of five cases where a large, planned outage overlapped with a large
unexpected one, the gap between California and U.S. retail gasoline prices
widened in the run-up to the maintenance shutdown and generally stabilized once
it began, William Leung, chief economist in the commission's Energy Assessments
Division, told a workshop this week.
CEC officials cautioned the findings are descriptive, rest on a small
sample, cover less than a full maintenance cycle and cannot show whether
planned maintenance affects prices.
The regulator is weighing four resupply approaches: a strong requirement
that applies at smaller gasoline production losses and requires more fuel
replacement, a softer rule for larger losses requiring less resupply, no
regulation at all, or other tools such as minimum inventory or a state fuel
reserve.
However, strict resupply requirements could lead refiners to delay planned
maintenance to improve their replacement position, CEC officials said, and a
delay could raise the chance of unplanned outages. California's Department of
Industrial Relations has raised the same concern.
Dan Lashof, a senior fellow with the World Resources Institute, urged the
commission to consider 90-day fuel stocks like those International Energy
Agency members must hold, with an entity independent of refiners managing them.
He added that California could ease imports and competition by dropping its
unique gasoline specifications.
CEC must compare how arbitrage responds to unplanned refinery outages in
California and in import-reliant regions with in-state refining, such as PADD
1B, said Jeremy Martin, fuels policy director at the Union of Concerned
Scientists.
This would allow the commission to test whether differences between regions
stem from market structure, vertical integration, California's unique gasoline
specifications or a lack of merchant terminals and storage, which can hinder
arbitrage and market entry, he added.
The Western States Petroleum Association opposed new mandates, arguing that
imports cannot replace in-state refining and citing port and marine terminal
limits and California Air Resources Board at-berth rules that affect tanker
calls in Southern California and extend to Northern California in 2027.
Refiners already prepare for maintenance by building inventory, buying
replacement product and leasing storage tanks, said Stephen Konig, director of
state government affairs for Marathon Petroleum. He added that CEC should count
carrying, working capital, storage, terminaling and freight costs when it
develops the rules.
CEC will next test whether market participants can profit from price gaps
and how fast imports arrive after outages, and it plans to present the results
at a workshop in early 2027.
Crude Market Rebalances as Diesel Stays Tight
Global oil inventories in October expanded for the first time since the
start of U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. A surge in supply, driven by rapidly
recovering crude oil exports from the Middle East, strong growth in non-OPEC
production, and a stickier-than-expected demand lull at least temporarily
halted an imbalance that had sent global inventories on a seven-month long
nosedive.
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest estimates pegged last month's
global oil supply recovery at 2.3 million bpd as Persian Gulf crude exports
rebounded to more than 80% of pre-war levels. The sizable jump narrowed the gap
to year-ago levels to 2.9 million bpd, while demand continued to be plagued by
availability issues, high prices and record-high freight costs eating into
refining margins. This led to the first surplus since the beginning of the war
in late February, with IEA data showing observed global inventories rising at
an average pace of 1.7 million bpd last month.
However, this rebalancing was largely confined to the crude oil market.
Refined product exports from the Persian Gulf, which, in contrast to crude oil,
lack alternative outlets, continued at only half of pre-war levels.
This lopsided recovery in flows was exacerbated by receding global fuels
production. War-induced refinery outages in Russia and the Middle East have
removed much needed capacity from the global market, all while these very same
conflicts propelled tanker rates to all-time highs. Global charter rates for
VLCCs have over the past two months alone more than doubled.
Consequently, global supplies of refined products stayed limited, and may
have even dropped despite still healthy margins. The IEA in its latest monthly
oil market report published Friday (11/13) estimated global refinery runs in
October to have dropped by 1.3 million bpd month-on-month.
Rocky Road for Fuel Supply
Refining operations are much more costly and time-consuming to restore than
oil rigs in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In addition, refiners, especially in Russia,
may be strongly disincentivized to undergo repairs during a time in which
defenses against intensifying Ukrainian attacks have proven ineffectual. Over
the past six months, several Russian refineries were struck and damaged within
weeks of reemerging from a prior attack, and reports last month suggested that
Rosneft, owner of around a third of Russian refining capacity, has been pumping
the maintenance brakes at its plants because of this very consideration.
Contentious Demand Destruction
The release of 42 million bbl of diesel from European emergency stockpiles
between now and the end of the year is set to help ease the market tightness
along the long fuels supply recovery road ahead. These supply-side measures,
however, are only treating the symptoms of a fundamental, physical shortage.
How quickly the diesel market can rebalance will also depend on the scale and
stickiness of price-induced demand destruction.
Consumers globally have reacted very differently to this year's soaring fuel
prices. In some markets like China, diesel consumption recorded a more than 10%
year-on-year decline, according to data from both Sinopec and from the National
Bureau of Statistics. In OECD countries, diesel demand, while more resilient,
has also measurably dropped with every passing month of high oil prices and the
resulting inflationary pressures and dampened economic growth.
Even notoriously price-inelastic U.S. fuels demand has shown signs of
declining. DTN refined fuels demand data showed diesel rack liftings this
quarter hovering near or even slightly below year-ago levels. According to
Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, domestic diesel demand, which
until April bucked many forecasts and ran above both year-ago levels and
long-term seasonal averages, has since been trailing both metrics.
The size and likely duration of this demand drop, however, remains one of
the most contentious issues and difficult to foresee factors. EIA's latest
Short-Term Energy Outlook anticipates that total oil demand could drop 2
million bpd, or 1.9% in 2026, and sees U.S. distillate fuel oil consumption
declining 1.2% year-on-year. IEA forecasts an even steeper global decline of
2.7 million bpd averaged over the year. OPEC analysts, meanwhile, while
acknowledging the detrimental effects on demand, still call for a modest
180,000 bpd in growth.
While quantifying demand destruction remains challenging, data show the
undeniable impact the highest retail prices in history have had on U.S. diesel
demand. Consumption recorded an unusual counter-seasonal decline once prices
surpassed the $6 gallon mark and showed the widest deficit to typical levels
during the time when prices at the pump were at their peak.
Weekly Recap: U.S. Rack Gas, Diesel Fall 13cts
U.S. wholesale rack prices for gasoline and ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD)
finished a volatile week lower Friday (11/13), as hopes for a diplomatic
resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict and rising petroleum inventories
outweighed persistent Middle East supply concerns, despite a recovery in fuel
prices during the final two sessions.
Nationwide gasoline rack prices averaged $2.6714 gallon Friday, down
13.06cts, or 4.7%, from Monday's $2.8020 gallon, according to DTN data. ULSD
declined 12.9cts, or 2.7%, to $4.6540 gallon from $4.7830 gallon at the
beginning of the week.
Much of the decline occurred early in the week as President Donald Trump's
comments suggesting that hostilities with Iran could end relatively soon raised
expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough. The prospect of easing supply
disruptions pushed crude and refined product futures lower, although renewed
security concerns near the Strait of Hormuz subsequently helped prices recover.
Reports of increased OPEC+ crude production in October added another source of
pressure.
The supply outlook was further complicated by Thursday's Energy Information
Administration report, which showed increases in U.S. petroleum inventories.
Distillate stocks rose 4.1 million bbl to 103.3 million bbl during the week
ended November 6, while gasoline inventories increased 1.8 million bbl to 210.8
million bbl. Commercial crude stocks climbed 4.7 million bbl to 414.4 million
bbl, ending five consecutive weekly declines.
However, the builds did not erase underlying supply tightness across all
petroleum markets. Distillate inventories remained 7.6 million bbl, or 6.8%,
below the corresponding 2025 level, while commercial crude stocks were 13.2
million bbl, or 3.1%, lower. Gasoline inventories, by contrast, exceeded their
previous-year level by 5.7 million bbl, or 2.8%, highlighting a less
constrained supply picture for motor fuel.
That contrast was also evident in futures and refining margins. WTI crude
fell to $85.18 bbl Tuesday before recovering to $88.55 bbl Friday, down $0.18
on the session. NYMEX ULSD advanced 1.52cts Friday to $4.3014 gallon, while
RBOB gasoline declined 2.08cts to $2.6495 gallon. The diesel crack increased
$0.77 to $92.07 bbl, while the gasoline crack fell $0.65 to $22.79 bbl.
Despite the late-week recovery, regional rack prices largely reflected the
broader decline. Rocky Mountain gasoline fell 20.75cts from Monday to $2.7939
gallon Friday, followed by the Midwest, down 17.81cts to $2.4380 gallon. West
Coast gasoline bucked the trend, rising 6.17cts to $3.3702 gallon.
Diesel rack prices also finished below Monday's levels across all five
PADDs, with Rocky Mountain ULSD falling 17.95cts to $4.9054 gallon. Gulf Coast
prices declined 13.32cts to $4.5192 gallon, while Midwest diesel dropped
13.01cts to $4.5836 gallon.
IEA Sees First Signs of Oil Market Rebalancing Since War
Global oil markets in October rebalanced for the first time since the start
of the U.S. war on Iran, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA)
newest oil market report published Friday (11/13). A surge in supply in
combination with a tepid demand recovery resulted in the first surplus since
February, IEA data showed.
Global oil supply rebounded by 2.3 million bpd last month amid the ongoing
recovery in Middle Eastern exports. The sizable jump narrowed the gap to
year-ago levels to 2.9 million bpd, compared to the more than 8 million bpd
year-on-year decline recorded in the second and third quarters of 2026.
In addition to Persian Gulf flows soaring back to more than 80% of pre-war
levels, this year's high price environment and expectations of a prolonged
supply disruption also lifted non-OPEC crude oil output. The Paris-based energy
watchdog estimated combined production from the Americas alone to have soared
by 1.6 million bpd year-on-year, spearheaded by record high output from the
U.S. and Guyana.
A slower-than-expected recovery in global oil demand also contributed to the
rebalancing. The IEA again lifted its demand decline forecast for 2026 by
100,000 bpd to 2.7 million bpd, the steepest drop since the pandemic. Freight
rates surged to all-time highs last month, cutting into refining margins and
dampening crude oil demand. Disruptions to Middle Eastern LPG and refined fuels
flows, which in contrast to crude oil continued at only half their pre-war
pace, also cut into demand.
Last month's rebalancing, in fact, was mostly confined to crude oil. Refined
fuels, particularly middle distillates, continued to be in short supply. Global
crude throughput declined by 1.3 million bpd from September to a seasonal low
of 81.3 million bpd amid ongoing refinery disruptions and sky-high freight
costs. While price-induced demand destruction and seasonally record high U.S.
refining operations helped ease the global fuels imbalance, the IEA sees the
ongoing diesel tightness continue well into 2027, even when factoring in the
coordinated sizable release of strategic diesel stocks from its European
partners.
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