MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News June 26th:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- Midwest Weekly: Spot Fuels Dive, Jet Fuel Takes Off
-- CFTC: WTI Bullish Bets Fall as Crude Prices Decline
-- NYH Weekly: Distillates Ease Despite 1-Year Low Stock
-- USGC Weekly: Spot Prices Dip Amid Easing Risk Premiums
-- Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rig Count Up 21
-- Analysis: Why Gasoline Prices Won't Plummet Like Crude
NEWS:
Midwest Weekly: Spot Fuels Dive, Jet Fuel Takes Off
Midwest fuel spot prices continued their declines this week, with jet fuel
being the only notable exception to a region aligning with the tumble in NYMEX
futures amid the downgrading of Middle East supply risks.
DTN data on Friday (6/26) showed Group 3 ULSD experiencing the single
largest decline for the week, across the PADD 2, plunging 21.77cts to a weekly
average of $2.8544 gallon.
Chicago-ULSD prices also experienced heavy downward pressure, shedding
20.73cts to reach a significantly lower weekly average price of $2.8439 gallon.
Wolverine-ULSD spot values slipped 19.47cts lower to average $2.8949 gallon
as regional trading drew to a definitive close for the current weekly trading
and processing cycle.
The Buckeye Complex-ULSD average spot value followed very closely behind
that regional downward trend, dropping 18.62cts to reach a lower weekly average
of $2.8944 gallon.
In the regional Midwest jet fuel market, Group 3 jet fuel prices strongly
bucked the broader negative trend by surging 25.38cts to average $2.8464
gallon. Chicago jet fuel values also moved into positive territory, adding a
much milder 1.33cts over the weekly session to reach an average of $2.6159
gallon.
On the gasoline front, Group 3-Suboctane gasoline extended its losses into
negative territory by dropping 12.72cts to reach a lower weekly average of
$2.7047 gallon.
Chicago-CBOB regular recorded a significantly milder contraction among the
regional group, easing 2.37cts to hit a slightly lower weekly average price of
$2.8367 gallon.
Wolverine-CBOB regular gave up 1.97cts over the weekly session to finish at
an average price of $2.8787 gallon according to the data in Screenshot
2026-06-26 164722.png. Buckeye Complex-CBOB regular averages softened by
2.00cts over the same weekly session to match the general downward trend at a
lower weekly average of $2.8784 gallon.
CFTC: WTI Bullish Bets Fall as Crude Prices Decline
Money managers reduced their bullish bets in NYMEX West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) crude for a fifth consecutive week during the week ended June 23 as
traders took profits following the recent geopolitical risk premium and awaited
further clarity after the U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Noncommercial long positions in WTI held by money managers fell by 10,978
contracts to 350,026 during the reference week, according to weekly Commitment
of Traders data released Friday (6/26) by the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC).
Noncommercial short positions decreased by 1,128 contracts to 235,393 during
the same week, the CFTC data showed.
This caused the net noncommercial long position in WTI to decline by 9,850
contracts to 114,633. Open interest, meanwhile, fell by 95,832 contracts to
1,911,877.
Those moves came as WTI's front-month contract traded near five-month highs
above $76 bbl during the reference week before surging above $82 bbl following
U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Prices later retreated sharply
after Iran's limited retaliatory response and the announcement of a ceasefire
between Israel and Iran.
Noncommercial spread positions in WTI declined by 39,716 contracts to
602,418 during the same week.
Total long positions in WTI futures fell by 88,978 contracts to 1,830,503,
while total short positions declined by 91,861 contracts to 1,868,476.
NYH Weekly: Distillates Ease Despite 1-Year Low Stock
Fuel spot prices on the New York Harbor extended their downward trend during
the week ended June 26, with middle distillates weakening even as East Coast
inventories plummeted to their lowest level in nearly one year.
Ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) spot prices in the New York Harbor area
declined 3.38% week over week to average $3.1253 gallon, while jet fuel fell
2.27% to average $2.8558 gallon. CBOB regular also dropped, declining 2.39% to
average $2.7904 gallon. Despite the weekly declines, ULSD, jet fuel and
gasoline remained 31.11%, 27.26% and 35.70%, respectively, above the previous
year's levels, according to DTN data.
East Coast distillate fundamentals remained supportive after the U.S. Energy
Information Administration reported PADD 1 distillate inventories declined by
2.3 million bbl to 21.4 million bbl during the week ended June 19. The
inventory level was the lowest since June 27, 2025, when stocks stood at 21.5
million bbl, and remained 1.5 million bbl below the same week of the previous
year. Distillate imports dropped to 84,000 bpd from 103,000 bpd the previous
week.
In contrast, jet fuel stockpiles in the same region increased by 1.3 million
bbl to 11.6 million bbl, remaining 400,000 bbl above the previous year's level,
while imports declined to 6,000 bpd from 13,000 bpd the prior week.
Gasoline inventories edged 120,000 bbl higher to 58 million bbl, the highest
level since early April, though remaining below the 60.8 million bbl reported
during the same week of the previous year. Gasoline imports increased by 68,000
bpd to 451,000 bpd but remained well below the previous year's level.
Crude inventories increased by 600,000 bbl to 8.5 million bbl, while crude
imports nearly tripled to 540,000 bpd from 211,000 bpd the previous week.
However, refinery utilization fell sharply to 76.5% from 87.1%, reinforcing
the tight distillate supply picture despite broader inventory gains in gasoline
and crude.
No refinery outages or supply disruptions were reported across the East
Coast during the week.
USGC Weekly: Spot Prices Dip Amid Easing Risk Premiums
U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) fuel spot prices dropped during the week ended June
26 as easing geopolitical concerns eroded the market's risk premium, although
they remained higher than a year earlier. Jet fuel prices posted the steepest
weekly decline despite a draw in inventories last week.
USGC jet fuel spot prices posted the largest decline during the week,
falling 10.53cts or 3.73% week over week to average $2.7158 gallon. Despite the
weekly decline, prices remained 23.74% above the previous year's level.
Meanwhile, USGC ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) declined 6.73cts or 2.12% to
average $3.1028 gallon, while CBOB regular slipped 5.45cts or 1.94% to average
$2.7494 gallon. Compared with the previous year, ULSD was 34.28% higher and
CBOB stood 41.33% above the same period.
Mixed inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration
provided little direction for the market. PADD 3 jet fuel inventories fell by
800,000 bbl to 15.1 million bbl during the week ended June 19, although they
remained 1.1 million bbl above the comparable week of the previous year.
Conversely, gasoline inventories in the same region rebounded by 900,000 bbl to
78.7 million bbl during the week ended June 19 but remained 4.9 million bbl
below the same week of the previous year. Imports fell to zero from 141,000 bpd
the prior week.
Distillate fuel oil inventories rose by 3 million bbl to 42.7 million bbl
but remained 600,000 bbl below the previous year's level.
Crude oil inventories dropped by 4 million bbl to 239.8 million bbl, while
crude imports climbed by 159,000 bpd to 1.174 million bpd. Refinery utilization
eased to 96.2% from 96.7% the previous week.
Operationally, Gulf Coast refiners remained active despite isolated
disruptions. TotalEnergies reported a six-day unplanned shutdown affecting
multiple process units at its 238,000 bpd Port Arthur refinery following a
lightning-related power outage, while Phillips 66 reported a short-duration
flaring event at its 277,000 bpd Sweeny refinery after a process upset. Neither
event appeared to materially affect regional fuel supply during the week.
Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rig Count Up 21
North American energy drilling activity increased by 21 rigs this week,
according to Baker Hughes' weekly rigs report released Friday (6/26).
The regional rig count for the week ended June 26 stood at 770, compared to 749
in the previous week.
Year on year, rigs for Canada and the U.S. combined were up 83 from the 687
actively deployed in the same week of 2025.
This week's increase was driven by gains in both countries. Canada added 11
rigs on the week, while the U.S. rig count increased by 10.
As a result, Canada's tally stood at 197, while the U.S. count rose to 573.
In the United States, oil-directed rigs increased by seven to 440, while gas
directed rigs rose by three to 125. Miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at eight.
By trajectory, U.S. horizontal rigs increased by eight to 487, directional rigs
climbed by one to 73, and vertical rigs were unchanged at 11.
Analysis: Why Gasoline Prices Won't Plummet Like Crude
Oil futures have plummeted in reaction to the U.S.-Iranian interim deal,
which reopened the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent's front-month contract on
Thursday (6/25) touching pre-war levels of $72.06 bbl in intraday trading for
the first time since the beginning of the conflict. Regardless of whether crude
prices will continue easing, U.S. consumers should not expect the same price
development at the pump.
The difference in price reactions so far reveals the structural challenges
that will temper the drop in retail prices just as we hit peak summer demand.
On Friday, crude futures were trading around 3% above pre-war levels, while
RBOB's front-month contract was still 42% higher than on February 27. Even when
factoring out price seasonality, gasoline futures have so far held on to much
more of their war-induced gains. Energy Information Administration data showed
that nationwide, a gallon of regular gasoline at the pump is still up 33%, and
continues to be $0.7 gallon more expensive than at the same time last year.
A flood of crude oil leaving the Persian Gulf after having been stuck for
months, combined with market optimism that the latest truce will endure, sent
crude futures into free fall this week. Spot prices for physical barrels also
plummeted in the face of the expected oil inundation. Crude supply, however,
will be far from being restored to antebellum levels once this initial wave has
ebbed.
Most of the increase in ship traffic has come from tankers leaving the
region. Around eighty vessels have left the Persian Gulf over the last two
days, but only a handful of empty tankers have so far entered. Given long
voyage times and limited tanker availability, it will take weeks before the
market can gauge how confident shippers are that the Strait of Hormuz is open
for good -- indicated by the volume of inbound traffic of empty and ballasting
tankers, as well as by how quickly shipping and insurance rates normalize.
Logistical constraints aside, damaged infrastructure and months of shut-in
fields present additional hurdles. While most production can be restored in a
matter of weeks, the portion that will take months to come back online still
represents a not-inconsiderable share of global supply.
All these factors point toward current crude prices failing to fully capture
the reality of supply in the medium term. Even if supply were fully restored
overnight and crude continued to slide, however, fuel prices will likely soften
at a much slower pace, given that their rally over the past three-and-a-half
months was caused by more than just soaring crude prices.
The closure of the Strait cut Asian refiners off from their main source of
crude, forcing them to slash runs and work through inventories, resulting in
the lowest global refining rates since COVID. The International Energy Agency
estimates that global refinery runs in the second quarter were down 4.7 million
bpd year-on-year. Given the timescale involved in ramping up refining
operations and restoring supply chains, the supply of refined fuels is set to
recover much slower than that of crude oil.
Another factor slowing the retail price drop is logistical in nature. The
large spot premiums for physical crude over futures seen during the height of
the conflict have all but disappeared amid the fresh wave of Middle Eastern oil
hitting the market, but tight fuel inventories have yet to experience the same
relief, keeping the spot-to-futures differential elevated in many regions of
the country.
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