MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Maria Eugenia Garcia
DTN Energy Editor
MARKETWIRE ALERTSMarketWire Afternoon News November 4:Updated at 5:55 PM ETHEADLINES:-- Par Pacific Doubles Q3 Tacoma Gross Margin-- Chicago CBOB Up 18cts as Futures Slump on U.S. Election-- EIA: PADD 5 Jet Stocks Dip 633K Bbl, Lowest Since May 2025-- EIA: PADD 3 Distillate Stocks Lowest Since August-- EIA: U.S. Ethanol Inventories Rise 2.1% on Year-- EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Fall 1.8M Bbl-- EIA: PADD 2 Distillates at 12-Yr Low; Gasoline Record Low-- EIA: Crude Stocks Drop 1.9M Bbl to 12-Week Low-- EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Drop 1.9% Y-o-Y-- Cenovus Q3 Downstream Margin $1.28B, Up YoY-- Democrats Retake Congress in Challenge to Trump Policies, Iran War-- U.S. Rack Diesel Rises 5.25cts Despite Oil Decline
NEWS:
Par Pacific Doubles Q3 Tacoma Gross Margin
Par Pacific's 42,000 bpd refinery in Tacoma, Washington, earned an implied
gross margin of $27.31 bbl in the third quarter, more than double the year-ago
level, the company reported Wednesday (11/4).
The gain followed a rise in Par's Washington index, the company's estimate
of the margin available to its refinery there, built from Tacoma fuel prices,
less crude, RIN and other costs. The index averaged $30.68 bbl this quarter, up
84.15% from a year ago.
Par's gross margin equaled 89% of the index, which the company calls its
capture rate. Shawn Flores, chief financial officer, said on the company's
earning call that the rate reflected West Coast jet-to-diesel spreads
normalizing from the first half.
Capture rate was 100% in the prior quarter, an implied margin of $20.27 bbl,
and 69% a year ago, an implied $11.50 bbl, when Flores said a wider jet
discount to diesel weighed on the rate.
Par forecasts a fourth quarter Washington throughput of 39,000-42,000 bpd.
CEO Will Monteleone said he expects Par's future logistics growth to focus
on smaller opportunities within core markets rather than long-haul West Coast
pipelines. Midstream and refining majors such as HF Sinclair, Phillips 66, and
Kinder Morgan are, meanwhile, advancing the 230,000-bpd Western Gateway
pipeline to move Midcontinent barrels west by 2029.
Permian Resources Q3 Oil/Gas Sales Up 48% Y-o-Y
Permian Resources Corp. reported on Wednesday (11/4) oil and gas sales of
$1.96 billion for the third quarter, up 48% year-on-year as higher Delaware
Basin production helped drive $846 million in adjusted free cash flow.
-- Total net production averaged 457,528 barrels of oil equivalent per day
(BOE/d), an 11.5% increase year-over-year, led by strong well performance
across stacked-pay Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations. Average daily crude oil
production reached 208,029 bpd during the third quarter.
-- Total crude oil output reached 19.139 million barrels (MBbls), up from
17.198 MBbls in Q3 2025.
-- NGL production rose to 10.885 MBbls, compared to 9.736 MBbls in the
prior-year period.
-- Controllable cash costs dropped to a company-record low of $7.05 per BOE,
reflecting operating cost efficiencies across its West Texas and New Mexico
acreage.
-- Total cash capital expenditures for the third quarter totaled $518
million, remaining flat quarter-over-quarter.
-- Permian Resources raised its full-year 2026 operational and financial
guidance, citing higher capital efficiency, operational uptime, and strong well
performance across its Delaware Basin acreage.
-- The company also expanded its core inventory footprint during the quarter
via $1.15 billion in targeted bolt-on acquisitions, including assets from Ridge
Runner Resources II.
Chicago CBOB Up 18cts as Futures Slump on U.S. Election
The spot basis for Chicago CBOB rebounded by 18cts Wednesday (11/4),
narrowing to 15cts gallon its discount against the December NYMEX RBOB
contract, as physical fuel prices in the Midwest bucked the selloff across
energy futures.
On the Buckeye Complex, CBOB advanced 6cts to settle at a 15cts gallon
discount to December futures. Wolverine CBOB held unchanged at a 10cts
discount. In the Midcontinent, Group 3 CBOB basis edged up 0.75ct to a 20.5cts
discount.
Physical market participants reported muted trade activity on the session as
buyers processed the broader futures market retreat following Tuesday's U.S.
midterm elections, where Democrats wrested control of Senate from ruling
Republicans. NYMEX December RBOB gasoline futures fell $0.2069, or 7.05%, to
settle at $2.7286 gallon, after an eight-month low at $2.7131.
"There is plenty of product now, refining capacity is increasing, and if
physical buyers didn't have to do something today, they figure it will probably
be cheaper tomorrow," a Midwest fuels trader told DTN.
EIA: PADD 5 Jet Stocks Dip 633K Bbl, Lowest Since May 2025
All three major refined product inventories on the U.S. West Coast (PADD 5)
were below year-ago levels in the week ended October 30, according to Energy
Information Administration data released Wednesday (11/4).
The drop in stocks came as imports eased for jet fuel and rose for
distillate and gasoline. Meanwhile, refinery utilization slid to 91.7% from
95.1% a week earlier, the weakest run rate since the week ended August 7.
Jet fuel posted the largest draw, with stocks falling 633,000 bbl to 10.2
million bbl, the lowest level since early May 2025, and below the 11.1 million
bbl reported in the same week a year ago. The decline came even as refiners
lifted jet fuel output to 485,000 bpd from 445,000 bpd, the highest since the
week ended June 26, while imports fell to zero from 74,000 bpd.
PADD 5 distillate inventories slipped for a second straight week, losing
116,000 bbl week-on-week to 10 million bbl, compared with 12.2 million bbl in
the equivalent week of 2025. Ultra-low sulfur (0-15 ppm) fuel accounted for
most of the decline, dropping 89,000 bbl to 8.96 million bbl, the lowest since
the week ended October 2. Refinery output eased to 413,000 bpd from 416,000
bpd, while imports rose to 9,000 bpd from 1,000 bpd.
Gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. West Coast fell 308,000 bbl to 27.3 million
bbl, a level not seen since the week ended September 4. This was below the 28.3
million bbl recorded in the same week last year. Production slipped to 1.306
million bpd from 1.312 million bpd in the prior week, and imports rose to
14,000 bpd from 11,000 bpd.
Crude runs fell as well, with refinery inputs easing to 1.963 million bpd
from 2.070 million bpd, the lowest since mid-July. Crude oil stocks moved the
other way, rising 614,000 bbl to 42.6 million bbl, though they remained short
of the 47.4 million bbl in the same week of prior year. Crude imports fell to
844,000 bpd from 1.047 million bpd.
EIA: PADD 3 Distillate Stocks Lowest Since August
U.S. Gulf Coast distillate fuel inventories fell by 2.9 million bbl during
the week ended October 30, reaching their lowest level since August 21,
according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released Wednesday
(11/4).
Distillate stocks declined to 40.5 million bbl from 43.4 million bbl the
previous week, their lowest since August 21, when supplies totaled 39.6 million
bbl. Inventories were 5.2 million bbl below the 45.7 million bbl reported
during the comparable week of 2025. The Gulf Coast accounted for approximately
81% of the nationwide 3.6 million bbl draw.
Gasoline inventories increased by 1.9 million bbl to 81.7 million bbl from
79.8 million bbl the previous week. Stocks were 5.1 million bbl above the 76.6
million bbl recorded during the comparable week of 2025.
Jet fuel inventories rose by 300,000 bbl to 14.9 million bbl from 14.6
million bbl the previous week. Supplies were 1.3 million bbl above the 13.6
million bbl reported a year earlier.
Commercial crude oil inventories declined by 600,000 bbl to 227.2 million
bbl from 227.8 million bbl the previous week. Stocks were 10.3 million bbl
below the 237.5 million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Gulf Coast refinery utilization increased to 96.1% of operable capacity from
94.9% the previous week, while crude oil inputs rose by 127,000 bpd to 9.4
million bpd.
EIA: SPR Near 44-Year Low as DOE Completes Awards
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil inventories fell by 399,000
bbl during the week ended October 30, remaining near levels last recorded in
1982 as the Department of Energy (DOE) completed contract awards under its 172
million bbl crude oil exchange program.
SPR inventories declined to approximately 282.2 million bbl from 282.6
million bbl the previous week, extending withdrawals from the nation's
emergency stockpile, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data
released Wednesday (11/4).
Reserve supplies were approximately 127.4 million bbl below the 409.6
million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025, reflecting withdrawals
associated with the government's emergency crude oil release program.
DOE announced Thursday (10/29) that it had awarded contracts covering more
than 40 million bbl of crude oil exchanges, completing the United States'
commitment to release 172 million bbl as part of a coordinated 400 million bbl
emergency action by International Energy Agency member nations.
According to DOE, the exchange agreements provide for the return of more
than 216 million bbl beginning in early 2027, including approximately 44
million additional premium barrels. Crude oil under the latest awards will be
supplied from the SPR's Big Hill and Bryan Mound storage sites.
Meanwhile, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the SPR,
declined by approximately 900,000 bbl to 409.8 million bbl during the week
ended October 30, marking a fifth consecutive weekly draw. Commercial supplies
were 11.4 million bbl below the 421.2 million bbl reported during the
comparable week of 2025.
EIA: PADD 3 Distillate Stocks Lowest Since August
U.S. Gulf Coast distillate fuel inventories fell by 2.9 million bbl during
the week ended October 30, reaching their lowest level since August 21,
according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released Wednesday
(11/4).
Distillate stocks declined to 40.5 million bbl from 43.4 million bbl the
previous week, their lowest since August 21, when supplies totaled 39.6 million
bbl. Inventories were 5.2 million bbl below the 45.7 million bbl reported
during the comparable week of 2025. The Gulf Coast accounted for approximately
81% of the nationwide 3.6 million bbl draw.
Gasoline inventories increased by 1.9 million bbl to 81.7 million bbl from
79.8 million bbl the previous week. Stocks were 5.1 million bbl above the 76.6
million bbl recorded during the comparable week of 2025.
Jet fuel inventories rose by 300,000 bbl to 14.9 million bbl from 14.6
million bbl the previous week. Supplies were 1.3 million bbl above the 13.6
million bbl reported a year earlier.
Commercial crude oil inventories declined by 600,000 bbl to 227.2 million
bbl from 227.8 million bbl the previous week. Stocks were 10.3 million bbl
below the 237.5 million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Gulf Coast refinery utilization increased to 96.1% of operable capacity from
94.9% the previous week, while crude oil inputs rose by 127,000 bpd to 9.4
million bpd.
EIA: U.S. Ethanol Inventories Rise 2.1% on Year
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (11/4) that
overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.143 million bpd in
the week ending October 30, up 25,000 bpd week-on-week and 50,000 bpd, or 4.6%
higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.127
million bpd was 23,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.09 million bpd, up 28,000 bpd
week-on-week and 58,000 bpd, or 5.6% higher than in the same week last year.
Four-week average output at 1.07 million bpd was 24,000 bpd above the same four
weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 899,000 bpd, down 8,000 bpd
week-on-week and 2,000 bpd, or 0.2% lower than in the same week last year.
Four-week average blending demand at 853,000 bpd was 6,000 bpd above the same
four weeks last year.
Blender inputs at the East Coast were steady on the week while inputs in the
Midwest were down 5,000 bpd, unchanged on the Gulf Coast and down 2,000 bpd on
the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 24.434 million bbl, down
89,000 bbl on a weekly basis and 506,000 bbl, or 2.1% higher than in the same
week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 6.981 million bbl, up
164,000 bbl from previous week and 523,000 bbl, or 8.1% higher than in the same
week last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 9.697 million bbl, down 100,000
bbl week-on-week and 330,000 bbl, or 3.3% lower than in the same period last
year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 4.864 million bbl, down
134,000 bbl week-on-week and 146,000 bbl, or 2.9% lower than in the same week
last year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.553 million bbl, down
17,000 bbl week-on-week and 447,000 bbl, or 21.2% higher than in the same week
last year.
EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Fall 1.8M Bbl
East Coast gasoline inventories fell by 1.8 million bbl during the week
ended October 30, reversing much of the previous week's 2.3 million bbl build,
according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released Wednesday
(11/4).
Gasoline stocks declined to 52.1 million bbl from 53.9 million bbl the
previous week but remained 400,000 bbl above the 51.7 million bbl reported
during the comparable week of 2025.
Distillate fuel inventories increased by 800,000 bbl to 22.6 million bbl,
extending the previous week's 800,000 bbl build. Supplies remained 3.8 million
bbl below the 26.4 million bbl recorded during the comparable week of 2025.
Within the region, Central Atlantic distillate inventories rose by 1 million
bbl to 10.8 million bbl, while New England stocks increased by 200,000 bbl to
2.7 million bbl. Lower Atlantic supplies fell by 400,000 bbl to 9.1 million bbl.
Jet fuel inventories edged down by 100,000 bbl to 9.2 million bbl from 9.3
million bbl the previous week and were also 100,000 bbl below year-earlier
levels.
East Coast commercial crude oil inventories increased by 100,000 bbl to 8.1
million bbl, matching the level reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Refinery utilization climbed to 89.5% of operable capacity from 81.7% the
previous week, while crude oil inputs increased by 72,000 bpd to 828,000 bpd.
The utilization rate was the highest since at least September 18, when it
reached 89.2%.
EIA: PADD 2 Distillates at 12-Yr Low; Gasoline Record Low
Midwest distillate stockpiles plunged to their lowest level in nearly 12
years during the week ended October 30, while gasoline remained at record lows,
the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (11/4).
Jet fuel inventories held flat as refinery crude processing runs and
regional capacity utilization in PADD 2 rebounded sharply on the week,
according to the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
Distillate stocks drew by 1.4 million bbl during the week ended October 30
to stand at 22.8 million bbl, down from the prior week's 24.2 million bbl. EIA
historical data showed this to be the lowest regional distillate volume logged
since November 21, 2014, when stocks stood at 21.900 million bbl.
Year-on-year, PADD 2 distillate stockpiles also stood 1.0 million bbl below
the 23.8 million bbl reported during the same week of 2025.
Distillate imports into the Midwest declined by 6,000 bpd on the week to
average 6,000 bpd, down 19,000 bpd from the year-ago volume.
Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 2 remained unchanged during the week
ended October 30 at an all-time record low of 41.0 million bbl, matching the
week-ago level. Year-on-year, regional gasoline inventories were 1.5 million
bbl lower.
Gasoline imports into the region dropped to zero bpd on the week, compared
to zero bpd during the equivalent week last year.
Jet fuel inventories held steady from the prior week at 6.8 million bbl,
standing 100,000 bbl below the year-ago level of 6.9 million bbl. Weekly jet
fuel imports remained at zero bpd, matching both week-ago and year-ago levels.
Crude oil inventories in the Midwest fell by 100,000 bbl on the week to
107.8 million bbl, but remained 3.3 million bbl above the year-ago level.
Crude imports into PADD 2 increased by 312,000 bpd last week to average
3.032 million bpd, up 366,000 bpd from a year earlier.
Refiner crude inputs rebounded by 127,000 bpd to 3.896 million bpd on the
week, compared to 3.769 million bpd the prior week, remaining well above the
3.520 million bpd processed in the same week last year.
The regional refinery utilization rate advanced 4.8 percentage points to
92.9% from 88.1% the prior week, comfortably exceeding the year-ago rate of
83.1%.
EIA: Crude Stocks Drop 1.9M Bbl to 12-Week Low
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories declined for a fifth consecutive week
during the week ended October 30, while distillate fuel supplies fell to their
lowest level in more than 23 years, according to Energy Information
Administration (EIA) data released Wednesday (11/4).
Commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 900,000 bbl to 409.8 million
bbl, extending the previous week's decline. Stocks were 11.4 million bbl below
the 421.2 million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Distillate fuel inventories fell by 3.6 million bbl to 99.3 million bbl,
their lowest level since the week ended May 2, 2003, when supplies totaled 97.3
million bbl. Inventories were 12.3 million bbl below the 111.5 million bbl
reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Gasoline inventories edged down by 200,000 bbl to 209 million bbl, reversing
part of the previous week's 3.9 million bbl increase. Stocks were 2.9 million
bbl above the 206 million bbl reported a year earlier.
Jet fuel inventories declined by 400,000 bbl to 41.8 million bbl, following
a similar draw the previous week. Supplies were 100,000 bbl above the 41.7
million bbl recorded during the comparable week of 2025.
U.S. crude oil imports were unchanged at 6.374 million bpd, while exports
declined by 1.179 million bpd to 3.675 million bpd. Domestic crude oil
production increased by 11,000 bpd to 14.003 million bpd.
U.S. refinery utilization increased to 94.5% of operable capacity from 92.8%
the previous week, while crude oil inputs rose by 199,000 bpd to 16.725 million
bpd.
EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Drop 1.9% Y-o-Y
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (11/4) total
domestic propane/propylene stocks of 104.108 million bbl in the week ending
October 30, down 1.627 million bbl week-on-week and 1.986 million bbl, or 1.9%
lower than in the same week last year.
Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 1.869 million bpd,
down 364,000 bpd week-on-week and 95,000 bpd, or 4.8%, lower than in the same
week last year.
Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 1.44
million bpd, up 680,000 bpd week-on-week and 496,000 bpd, or 52.5% higher than
in the same week last year.
EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.948 million
bpd, up 54,000 bpd week-on-week and 97,000 bpd, or 3.4% higher than in the same
week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 8.826 million bbl, down
483,000 bbl week-on-week and 892,000 bbl, or 9.2% lower than in the same week
last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 25.1 million bbl, down 107,000
bbl week-on-week and 2.791 million bbl, or 10% lower than in the same week last
year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 64.684 million bbl, down
872,000 bbl week-on-week and 1.565 million bbl, or 2.5% higher than in the same
week last year.
Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended
the week at 5.497 million bbl, down 167,000 bbl week-on-week and 131,000 bbl,
or 2.4% higher than in the same week last year.
Cenovus Q3 Downstream Margin $1.28B, Up YoY
Calgary-based Cenovus Energy reported Tuesday (11/3) its downstream
operating margin was $1.283 billion in the third quarter, nearly five times the
$264 million recorded in the same quarter a year ago and 86.16% above the
second quarter.
Amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, Cenovus said the Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread
averaged $59.43 bbl, more than double the $24.24 bbl in the same quarter a year
ago and 27.70% up from the prior month.
Cenovus said its U.S. Refining operating margin rose to $985 million and its
adjusted refining margin more than tripled to $39.70 bbl, from $184 million and
$11.56 bbl in the same quarter a year ago.
The company processed 316,600 bpd of crude in its U.S. refineries, down
47.70% from 605,300 bpd in the same quarter a year ago, after the sale of
Cenovus' 50% interest in the Wood River and Borger refineries on September 30
to Phillips 66, cutting its U.S. operable capacity by 40.42% to 364,800 bpd.
Democrats Retake Congress in Challenge to Trump Policies, Iran War
Democrats have retaken control of the House of Representatives and Senate
with landslide wins in U.S. midterm elections, indicating challenges for the
Trump administration's policies, including the war in Iran.
Securing at least 225 House seats to surpass the required majority of 218,
and 54 of the 100-seat Senate, Democrats could widen their composition of both
chambers in the coming days with more votes to be counted from the Tuesday
(11/3) election.
With Republicans backing U.S. President Donald Trump scheduled to make way
in January for the winners of their seats, Democratic lawmakers are expected to
challenge Trump on the War Powers Resolution to limit military action in the
Strait of Hormuz. They could also demand explicit Congressional authorization
for further strikes against Iranian targets.
While presidents can invoke emergency powers to initiate short-term military
strikes, Article I of the Constitution reserves the right to declare war to
Congress to prevent executive overreach.
"Similarly, Trump can maintain U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil via executive
order, but a Democratic-controlled Congress can also push for a diplomatic
de-escalation to secure commercial vessel transit through the Strait of
Hormuz," said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital.
Republicans are also likely to face limits on their efforts to expand export
approvals for domestic crude oil from the U.S. Gulf Coast or roll back
Environmental Protection Agency curbs on drilling and other upstream oil
activity under a divided government.
U.S. Rack Diesel Rises 5.25cts Despite Oil Decline
U.S. wholesale rack prices for ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) rebounded
Wednesday (11/4), while gasoline edged higher, despite declining crude oil and
refined product futures as the market assessed the implications of the U.S.
midterm elections and renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East
conflict.
Nationwide ULSD rack prices increased 5.25cts to $5.0504 gallon from
Tuesday's revised $4.9979 gallon, according to DTN data. Conventional unleaded
gasoline edged up 0.31ct to $2.9649 gallon from $2.9617 gallon, following
Tuesday's sharp 22.72cts decline.
Oil futures remained under pressure as Democrats secured control of Congress
in Tuesday's midterm elections, raising questions about President Donald
Trump's foreign policy agenda and the direction of U.S. involvement in the
conflict with Iran.
Attention also turned to Qatar's efforts to facilitate renewed negotiations
between Washington and Tehran, with the possibility of reduced hostilities
tempering concerns over disruptions to Middle Eastern oil shipments. However,
uncertainty surrounding regional energy infrastructure and shipping routes
continued to influence petroleum markets.
WTI futures fell $1.86 to $94.25 bbl, while NYMEX ULSD declined 7.13cts to
$4.4602 gallon. RBOB gasoline dropped 5.42cts to $2.8813 gallon.
Refining margins weakened, with the diesel crack falling $1.03 to $93.16
bbl, remaining below the $100 bbl threshold after trading above that level in
late October. The gasoline crack declined $0.19 to $27.01 bbl.
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday that crude
inventories fell 5.267 million bbl last week, while distillate supplies
declined 1.192 million bbl. Gasoline stocks increased 1.427 million bbl,
presenting a mixed supply picture ahead of Wednesday's Energy Information
Administration report.
Diesel rack prices increased in four PADDs, led by the Gulf Coast, up
8.92cts to $4.9167 gallon. West Coast ULSD rose 5.57cts to $5.4983 gallon,
while East Coast prices advanced 4.23cts to $4.8694 gallon.
Gasoline rack prices were mixed, with East Coast prices climbing 2.1cts to
$2.8937 gallon, while Rocky Mountain gasoline fell 1.83cts to $3.1927 gallon.
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