CSU Team Eyes 16 Named Storms in Atlantic Hurricane Season


   
Dawn Gallagher
DTN Energy Reporter

   OAKHURST, N.J. (DTN) --- Colorado State University Researchers decreased 
slightly their 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast, which began June 1 and 
runs through Nov. 30, now predicting for a slightly above-normal season with a 
total of 16 named stores versus 17 previously estimated. Of those, eight are 
expected to become hurricanes, with three forecast to become major hurricanes.

   The team previously called for nine of the storms to become hurricanes with 
four to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per 
hour or greater.

   "The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed 
and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean share in 
June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons," wrote 
senior research scientist Philip J. Klotzbach, Professor Michael M. Bell and 
research scientist Levi Silvers.

   "However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by 
ENSO neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and 
central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were 
last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with 
likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and 
thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification".

   The team said the probabilities for at least one major category 3,4 or 5, 
hurricane landfall on the entire U.S. coastline is 48%; the U.S. East Coast 
including the Florida peninsula is 25%; and the Gulf Coast from the Florida 
Panhandle westward to Brownville is 31%.

   Another update is slated for release on Aug. 6.




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