EIA: Lower Output, High Demand to Draw on Jet Stocks


   
   OAKHURST, N.J. (DTN) -- The Energy Information Administration forecast a 
lower jet fuel supply in 2025 on anticipated higher demand and low output of 
the fuel, partly due to U.S. refinery closures, according to its latest 
Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

   "Jet fuel refinery yields will also decline as refiners shift production 
toward distillate fuel oil, consumption of which we expect to grow more than 
jet fuel, reducing jet fuel production," the EIA said.

   After reaching a six-year high in August, EIA expects domestic jet fuel 
stocks will generally decline through 2025, reversing a trend the past two 
years of generally higher supply.

   Jet fuel consumption this year remained below pre-pandemic levels and 
dropped versus 2023 in some months, resulting in supply builds. Rising jet fuel 
yields and production on the U.S. West Coast boosted jet fuel stocks in the 
region this past summer.

   EIA expects jet fuel inventories to fall by more than 5 million bbl in 
August, 12% down compared to the same period of last year.

   "If realized, this decline will be close to the largest drawdown in jet fuel 
stocks over any one-year period in the past 10 years. We forecast that jet fuel 
stocks will fall below 40 million bbl by the end of 2025, which will be the 
least since November 2023," according to EIA.

   Jet fuel crack spreads are expected to rise to 51cts gallon in 2025 from 
46cts gallon this year.

    




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